Binghamton, NY -- Wow...

Guess those exit polls were wrong: An exit poll released Wednesday night had indicated that Fatah won 58 seats in the elections, followed closely by Hamas with 53 seats.

Oops!

The actual results released on Thursday evening by the Palestinian Central Election Commission showed Hamas won 76 seats in 132-seat parliament, with the Fatah garnering only 43 seats. The thirteen remaining seats went to several smaller parties and independents.

There's democracy at work for you. Just because democracy brought about peace and prosperity in Eastern Europe doesn't mean it's going to do the same in the Middle East. Tom Friedman, I hope you're paying attention.

So what does the world think about this?

First off, President Bush gave his usual insightful tidbit, "I don't see how you can be a partner in peace if you advocate the destruction of a country as part of your platform," Bush said. "We're interested in peace." Maybe he missed the memo that said that Hamas is a terrorist organization. I don't think they ever claimed to be a partner for peace.

CNN also reported that "former President Jimmy Carter, who headed the mission to monitor the Palestinian election, concurred with Bush, saying that the U.S. should not negotiate with Hamas unless it 'accepts the two-state solution and acknowledges the fact that Israel is a nation deserving of recognition'."

And we've also got the same-old from the European side of the Quartet: a call for Hamas to disarm, renounce violence, and legitimately join the government. Yet again, I just don't understand what the EU is thinking. The Palestinians have spoken. They showed the world what they wanted, and that was Hamas. As much as I am against having Hamas in power, I don't see how the world can continue to act the same way towards them. The Palestinians voted for Hamas for a reason -- clearly they are fed up with the current leadership and the direction of the peace process. This draws a striking resemblence to the Likud Revolution of 2000 when Sharon marched back into government and took over a third of the Israeli Knesset. Israelis were fed up with the direction of the peace process, i.e. the seemingly endless Israeli concessions in exchange for a growing number of terror attacks. Sharon was able to transcend the gap between security and peace. Maybe Hamas will transcend the gap between terror and peace...

Nah, who am I kidding, the only things that are going to happen now are:
1. Likud is going to climb in the polls and probably win about 25 seats (taking 10 from Kadima).
2. Kadima is going to drop down to about 30 seats and will have a tough time forming a stable coalition.
3. If the peace process stalls for more than 14 months, Israel will have early elections yet again 20 months from now and Likud will take over.
4. In addition, if the peace process does stall, Olmert will simply call the security fence the final border and unilaterally give the Palestinians a state (in Gaza and roughly 90% of the West Bank).
5. The world will quickly "forget" that Hamas is a terrorist organization and try to force Israel to work out details with Hamas regarding final borders.
6. Abbas will probably resign his post as President of the Palestinian Authority and try to strike a deal with Israel simply as head of the PLO in which he agrees to whatever Israel offers. Of course with no real Palestinian Authority backing, no real resolution to the conflict will take place, and we will have a situation very similar to that of Lebanon in the early 1980s. Israel and the pro-Western government of Lebanon signed a peace treaty that was essentially meaningless since that government was quickly replaced by Syrian pseudo-rule in the form of Hezbullah and a puppet government.

I really hope that my outlook is pessimistic, but I can't help feeling that it's what will happen.

posted by Ari @ 10:19 PM Trackback Link