What's the Best We Can Do in the House? (October 19th Edition)

(Cross-posted at Daily Kos)

Here's the latest update of all of the Republican seats in Congress that the Dems currently have a chance to take. I've now used the ratings from sites in making this evaluation: The Cook Political Report (Cook), Electoral-Vote.com (EV), RealClearPolitics (RCP), Swing State Project (SSP), The Rothenberg Political Report (Rothenberg), and Congressional Quarterly (CQ); as well as the DCCC's Red-to-Blue, Emerging Races, and Races to Watch lists.

Currently, there are 86 Republican seats in play. If you have any others, please let me know in the comments (with links showing fundraising and/or polling numbers).

In the 110th Congress (2007-2008), the Dems hold 236 seats and the Republicans 199. The Dems are the majority in 27 of the states' delegations, the Reps 21, and 2 delegations are tied. In our best case scenario, the Democrats would have the majority in 40 states, the Republicans 7, with three ties (Idaho, Kansas, and Kentucky).

Here are the seats that at least one of those sites (or another source specified) rated as Dem pickup possibilities (New additions are signified with an asterisk):

Alabama: 7 districts, 5 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 4 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority

AL-02 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
AL-03* (DCCC, SSP, CQ)

Alaska: 1 district, 1 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

AK-AL (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Arizona: 8 districts, 4 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 6 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority

AZ-01 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
AZ-03 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Arkansas: 4 districts, 1 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 1 Rep, Dem Majority

California: 53 districts, 19 Republican, 7 in play
Best Case Scenario: 41 Dems, 12 Reps, Dem Majority

CA-03* (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
CA-04 (Cook, EV, RCP, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
CA-26* (DCCC, SSP, CQ)
CA-45* (DCCC)
CA-46* (Cook, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
CA-50* (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
CA-52* (DCCC)

Colorado: 7 districts, 3 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority

CO-04 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Connecticut: 5 districts, 1 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

CT-04 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Delaware: 1 district, 1 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 0 Dems, 1 Rep, Rep Majority

Florida: 25 districts, 16 currently Republican, 10 in play
Best Case Scenario: 19 Dems, 6 Reps, Dem Majority

FL-08 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
FL-09* (DCCC)
FL-10* (SSP)
FL-12* (SSP)
FL-13 (Cook, EV, DCCC, Rothenberg)
FL-15 (EV, SSP, CQ)
FL-18* (DCCC, SSP)
FL-21 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
FL-24 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
FL-25 (RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Georgia: 13 districts, 7 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 6 Dems, 7 Reps, Rep Majority

Hawaii: 2 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

Idaho: 2 districts, 2 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 1 Rep, Tie

ID-01 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Illinois: 19 districts, 8 Republican, 5 in play
Best Case Scenario: 16 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority

IL-06 (Cook, DCCC, CQ, Rothenberg)
IL-10 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
IL-11 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
IL-13* (DCCC, SSP, CQ)
IL-18* (DCCC, CQ)

Indiana: 9 districts, 4 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 7 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority

IN-03 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
IN-04* (SSP)

Iowa: 5 districts, 2 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

IA-04 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
IA-05 (DCCC, SSP)

Kansas: 4 districts, 2 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 2 Reps, Tie

Kentucky: 6 districts, 4 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 3 Reps, Tie

KY-02 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Louisiana: 7 districts, 4 Republican, 3 in play
Best Case Scenario: 6 Dems, 1 Rep, Dem Majority

LA-01* (DCCC, SSP, CQ)
LA-04 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, CQ, Rothenberg)
LA-07* (DCCC, SSP, CQ)

Maine: 2 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

Maryland: 8 districts, 2 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 8 Dems, 0 Rep, Dem Majority

MD-01 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
MD-06* (SSP)

Massachusetts: 10 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 10 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

Michigan: 15 districts, 9 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 8 Dems, 7 Reps, Dem Majority

MI-07 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
MI-09 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Minnesota: 8 districts, 3 Republican, 3 in play
Best Case Scenario: 8 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

MN-02 (Cook, DCCC, CQ)
MN-03 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
MN-06 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Mississippi: 4 districts, 1 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 1 Rep, Dem Majority

Missouri: 9 districts, 5 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 6 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority

MO-06 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
MO-09 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Montana: 1 district, 1 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 0 Dems, 1 Rep, Rep Majority

Nebraska: 3 districts, 3 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 2 Reps, Rep Majority

NE-02 (Cook, DCCC, CQ, Rothenberg)

Nevada: 3 districts, 2 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 0 Rep2, Dem Majority

NV-02 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
NV-03 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

New Hampshire: 2 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 0 Rep, Dem Majority

New Jersey: 13 districts, 6 Republican, 4 in play
Best Case Scenario: 11 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority

NJ-03 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
NJ-04* (DCCC)
NJ-05 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
NJ-07 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

New Mexico: 3 districts, 2 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

NM-01 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
NM-02 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

New York: 29 districts, 6 Republican, 4 in play
Best Case Scenario: 27 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority

NY-13 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
NY-25 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
NY-26 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
NY-29 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

North Carolina: 13 districts, 6 Republican, 3 in play
Best Case Scenario: 10 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority

NC-05 (SSP)
NC-08 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
NC-10 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)

North Dakota: 1 district, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

Ohio: 18 districts, 11 Republican, 7 in play
Best Case Scenario: 14 Dems, 4 Reps, Dem Majority

OH-01 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
OH-02 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
OH-07 (Cook, DCCC, CQ)
OH-08* (SSP)
OH-14* (SSP, CQ)
OH-15 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
OH-16 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Oklahoma: 5 districts, 4 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 3 Reps, Rep Majority

OK-01 (DCCC)

Oregon: 5 districts, 1 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 4 Dems, 1 Rep, Dem Majority

Pennsylvania: 19 districts, 8 Republican, 4 in play
Best Case Scenario: 15 Dems, 4 Reps, Dem Majority

PA-03 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
PA-06 (Cook, EV, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
PA-15 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
PA-18 (DCCC, SSP, CQ)

Rhode Island: 2 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 0 Reps, Rep Majority

South Carolina: 6 districts, 4 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 4 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority

SC-01* (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
SC-02* (DCCC, SSP, CQ)

South Dakota: 1 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

Tennessee: 9 districts, 4 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 4 Reps, Dem Majority

Texas: 32 districts, 19 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 15 Dems, 17 Reps, Rep Majority

TX-07 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
TX-10 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)

Utah: 3 districts, 2 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 2 Reps, Rep Majority

Vermont: 1 district, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

Virginia: 11 districts, 8 Republican, 4 in play
Best Case Scenario: 7 Dems, 4 Reps, Dem Majority

VA-02 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
VA-05 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
VA-10* (DCCC, SSP, CQ)
VA-11 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Washington: 9 districts, 3 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 7 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority

WA-08 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

West Virginia: 3 districts, 1 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

WV-02* (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Wisconsin: 8 district, 3 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority

Wyoming: 1 district, 1 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

WY-AL (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party, The Best We Can Do

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