Jason Brzoska
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Tuesday, November 11, 2008

New Rules -- Not the '90s

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Thursday, November 06, 2008

Core Reading (or, The Wheat)

Now that the election is more or less over (save for a couple of House and Senate seats), I'm going to slow down a bit on my normal online reading habits. For the next few months, I'm going to stick with the following really great blogs:

Daily Kos

Digby's Hullabaloo

D-Day

Silicon Investor

Talking Points Memo

The Phil Nugent Experience

Down With Tyranny!

All supremely informative and entertaining. I'll miss some of the rest, but a guy's gotta sorta kinda have a life, or at least work more :)

I'm also going to take January off from everything political, as I do after each election. Looking forward to that.

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The Next Generation -- More Tolerant?

From Ari at The Edge of the West:

As you might imagine, I'm deliriously happy today. As I was putting my older son to sleep last night, I had just heard about Ohio. I explained to the boy that Obama was going to win the election and become the first African-American President of the United States. The boy looked up at me, eyes filled with wonder, as one's kids will on occasion, and said, "Really? The first? How can that be?" My son will grow up in a different country than I did, a country where more things seem possible, where more things are possible.

The boy woke up today, left his bed, and stepped into his world of new possibilities. He marched into my bedroom and inquired about the election. I told him that Obama had won. He then asked about Proposition 8. I told him that it passed, that a majority of Californians chose to annul the marriages of several of his cousins and the parents of two of his good friends. He didn't say, "Really? How can that be?" But he was upset - even after I explained that the arc of the moral universe is long, but that it bends toward justice.

He's off to school now, and I'm left feeling like I should have worked harder against Proposition 8, like I should have spent more time phonebanking, should have raised more money. I'm ashamed that I was so overconfident, so sure that the day of justice was finally at hand. My son takes immeasurable comfort in his parents' marriage. His little cousins, his friends from school, the people he knows who will be most directly affected by Prop 8, awoke today into a world without that comfort. The arc of the moral universe feels unbearably long right now, even as a I celebrate President-elect Obama.


I can't believe I'm talking about a next generation...

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Wednesday, November 05, 2008

The Upshot

Well, I'm a little disappointed, actually. Just like me to be a downer, right?

After the election was called last night, I spent time talking to the crowd at the bar at the hotel where I'm staying in suburban Boston. About half were sorta rednecky Republicans and half were Dems. All said they supported Obama, though all of the Republicans repeatedly stated that McCain was a "true American" and a "true patriot" because he was a POW. When I asked them why they'd support Obama over McCain, the Republicans, to a man, replied, "because we need change." At the same time, they challenged me on my support for Obama and wouldn't listen to any reasoning that had anything to do with any issues. Change is all well and good, but I'd love to see some sort of acknowledgment from Obama voters, other than staunch, involved Democrats, that there's at least one not-so-abstract reason for it. Maybe I'm asking too much.

But one of the narratives I heard last night at the bar as well as in the newspapers and on the interweb today was that African-Americans "have no excuse anymore" when it comes to their success, and some have gone as far as to say that it proves that racism is dead and buried. Now, while I've been one of the first to say that racism has diminished enough that Obama's campaign could overcome it, it's far from gone.

It took an incredible, unbelievable black man running the best campaign in anyone's memory versus an underwhelming, doddering old man in the shadow of the worst President in the history of this country to put a black man in office. The Onion put it best in two headlines today:

Nation Finally Shitty Enough To Make Social Progress

Black Man Given Nation's Worst Job

Bernard Avishai thinks there's more to it:

I confess a certain impatience, on this poignant day, with all the earnest talk about how America achieved something remarkable yesterday by electing our first African-American president, as if the choice has been about race all along. I do not mean to diminish an historic first, like electing a Catholic in 1960; I, too, choked-up when John Lewis spoke. But relief today is not about Americans choosing an obviously black man over a white man, which proves we can come to terms with our past. It is about our choosing an obviously brilliant, reciprocal man over a thick, cynical one--a man who articulates a coherent vision of global commonwealth over someone advancing vague, military patriotism--which proves we can come to terms with our future.

Racism, it is true, did not confound the choice, as some predicted it would. But racism has not confounded mainstream admiration for The Cosby Show or Orprah or Tiger Woods--and hasn't for some time. Most of the 46% who voted for John McCain feel deeply anxious about a world in transition, where erudition, open-mindedness and intellectual discipline matter more and more, and their own sheer willingness to labor hard matters less and less. I bet they are more skittish about Obama's supremely elegant mind, his worldliness, than his dark skin; more drawn to the repudiation of "elitism" than to the rejection of "welfare."


So our choices are: 1. A significant portion of the country is still racist, 2. A significant portion of the country deliberately doesn't want to see an intelligent person in office, or 3. A bit of both.

Doesn't reflect terribly well, but I guess #3 isn't all that surprising to too many of us.

A nice segue from Digby into something else that doesn't reflect all that well on us, Yes on California's Proposition 8, which takes the right to marry away from gays in California:

It's terrific that we are seeing a decline in racism to the extent that we are able to elect a black president. We've come a long way and there's no taking anything away from those who waged the struggle over all these centuries. But our society is not truly changed if it's still writing discrimination into law.

It's as if we just can't be America unless we are taking active steps to marginalize somebody.


So true. We always need at least one enemy and at least like half a dozen underclasses.

We just didn't get as many House or Senate seats as I'd hoped, though 60 Senate seats is still a vague possibility.

It looks like Alaska managed to reelect a convicted felon, Senator Ted Stevens, and his supercorrupt sidekick, Don Young. I think that Stevens' conviction may have in fact helped the two of them, because Alaskan voters often see issues as the "Lower 48" against them and they may have felt that the "Washington elite," as their Governor likes to say, railroaded him.

Also, the abhorrent McCarthyite Michele Bachmann was reelected to her seat in Minnesota. What are they thinking in that state, particularly if Coleman pulls out reelection in his still-undecided Senate race.

I am happy, however, that Sasha and Malia Obama are getting a puppy!

Also, the elections of Walt Minnick in Idaho, Alan Grayson in Florida, Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Dan Maffei in New York, and Larry Kissell in North Carolina, among others, are welcome news.

And of course, YES WE DID! YES WE DID!

And make sure you catch the replay of tonight's South Park, which apparently was partially recorded after the election last night. Those guys are still in form after 12 years on the air.

UPDATE: A great post from Phil Nugent on "know-nothingness."

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The End of An Historic Night

So, it's over and Barack Obama is President-Elect.

Well, it's not quite over. Still some important Senate and House seats left, like in Minnesota and Alaska.

So how did I do? Not that well. I predicted Obama would get 330 electoral votes, that the Dems would get 8 net seats in Senate, and 39 net in the House. Looks like 370, 6, and 20ish.

But, a good night overall and we should enjoy this for a few days.

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Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Let Me Eat Cake!

I'm celebrating by expanding my gut with some chocolate cake. How are you celebrating?

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Last Man Standing Goes Down

CNN calls CT-05 for Jim Himes. Chris Shays, the last Republican Congressman in New England, is being retired.

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Mississippi Goes to Obama

207-135 on CNN.

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Texas for McCain

Still no surprises. Let's see how TX-07 and TX-10 come in...

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Jersey Not Looking Good

Zeitz, Stender, Adler, and Shulman all down. A friend at Shulman headquarters says he's about to concede. Very unexpected.

Obama's coattails are nonexistent there. At least Lautenberg won.

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More CNN Projections

Iowa to Obama, Utah to McCain. Kansas to McCain. No projections in Montana or Nevada. 206-89, Obama.

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Maryland

Obama up a lot, not surprising.

Andy Harris is leading in MD-01 (grrr) and Roscoe Bartlett has won in MD-06. Oh well.

UPDATE: Kratovil pulls even in MD-01. He'd better win. Harris is a total wingnut who beat moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrest in a bitter primary.

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Louisiana to McCain

Per CNN -- 199-78, Obama.

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John King...

"Can't get him [McCain] to 270."

Sad times at McCain's HQ. And Virginia is now 50-50.

UPDATE:

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CBS CALLS OHIO FOR OBAMA!

It's over! It's over! On CBS.

In CNN's world, it's not. John King insists that there's still room for McCain to come back from his 13 point deficit. We'll see.

UPDATE: MSNBC, Fox, and CNN call it too. That's it. It's over. They call New Mexico too, so assuming California goes Obama, he needs to win about two more states.

UPDATE 2: But we lose OH-14... longshot, anyway.

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Mitchie Hangs On

Unfortunate, as that leaves us with a cap of about 59 seats in the Senate, unless Ronnie Musgrove somehow wins in Mississippi, which I just don't see happening.

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Georgia... Oof.

CNN just called it for McCain with 33% in and McCain up 23 points. Didn't see that coming. That'll mean Saxby Chambliss is safe in the Senate. Sucks.

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A Few More for McCain

CBS calls Texas, Kansas, and North Dakota for McCain and now has Obama up 174-100.

While I think McCain might win North Dakota, I think CBS will regret calling it this early.

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Electoral Food!

I just got about four pounds of tortellini delivered from a local restaurant to the hotel bar. By the way, I'm in Boston tonight.

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More Calls from CNN

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York for Obama, and Wyoming for McCain. 174-49, Obama. Almost over.

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Lunsford with a Chance?

A little more than half in, Lunsford down by 2 in Kentucky. Can we take Mitchie McConnell out? I didn't think so, but it seems possible.

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Alabama goes McCain

No surprises or upsets yet.

102-43, Obama, according to CNN.

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Virginia Getting Closer

Virginia has closed to a 5% McCain lead as the results come in...

Unfortunately, looks like Judy Feder's going to lose to Frank Wolf in VA-10. That's a major disappointment after his staffers assaulted a couple of bloggers a few days ago.

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I'm Back

CNN has 102-34 Obama after calling PA.

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Break

Taking a break for a few minutes to find some food... hopefully we know more about Virginia when I get back!

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Three New Blue Senators

Kay Hagan (NC), Jean Shaheen (NH), and Mark Warner (VA).

Nobody particularly great, but they're Dems.

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More Florida

With more than 25% in, Obama's up 8 there.

In the good news column, FL-08 and FL-24 are going our way.

Bad news: FL-09, FL-10, FL-12, FL-13 and FL-18 are not.

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MSNBC Calls PA for Obama

As well as NH, but no one else has...

CBS called PA-18 for Tim Murphy. Rats.

UPDATE: ABC called PA for Obama, too! FL or VA, and it's over...

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Results Roll In

IL, MA, CT, NJ, MD, DE, DC, ME for Obama.

TN, OK for McCain.

76-34, Obama, from NBC.

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South Carolina

Called for McCain. No surprises yet. 16-3, McCain. No real word on Linda Ketner in SC-01 or Rob Miller in SC-02.

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Indiana at 25%

And McCain up 1. Still looking lousy for Montagano, down 17 now. Also about 25% in there.

Waiting on Florida and Virginia...

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Florida?

There's no way it's going to hold up, but sex scandal ridden Democrat Tim Mahoney is holding his own in FL-16 with about 8% of precincts in in his district...

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More Kentucky

Mitch McConnell up by 4 for the Senate seat.

But David Boswell up 4 for KY-02. That's one to watch.

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West Virginia Called for McCain

No surprise there. 13-3, McCain so far, and Obama up 49-46 in the popular vote.

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More Indiana

IN-04 and IN-06, the two longshot races I've been following, have been called for Mike Pence and Steve Buyer, the Republicans. Mark Souder (R) is up 12 with about 10% of the results in in IN-03. My fingers are crossed for Mike Montagano there, but it doesn't look good right now.

But, Obama is down 1 there. That's a really, really good sign.

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Virginia Coming Soon

That's the biggie. Obama takes it, it's over. The networks have already called the Senate race there for Mark Warner.

UPDATE: They've also called VA-11 for Gerry Connolly. Not a surprise, but that's one red seat gone blue.

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First EVs

CBS has called Vermont for Obama and Kentucky for McCain.

8-3, McCain.

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With .00000000000000001% of the Vote In...

McCain leads by about 32,000 to 28,000 (thanks, Lexi).

It's over! :)

UPDATE: In those #s, Obama is up two points in Indiana. (fingers crossed for him and Mike Montagano)

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Polls Close Soon

Indiana and Kentucky close right about now.

The best resource for poll closings can be found at Swing State Project.

I'll be keeping an eye on as much as I can.

Indiana's results can be found here as they come in.

Kentucky here.

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My Predictions for Tomorrow

Obama nabs 330 electoral votes, the Dems take 8 seats in the Senate (for a total of 59) and they net 39 seats in the House, giving them a total of 275.

Should be enjoyable to watch. I plan to liveblog as much as I can this evening, starting around 6.

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Vote or Die!

An important public service announcement from Diddy:

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Saturday, November 01, 2008

From the Mouths of Conservatives -- California Proposition 8

Jesus flippin' Christ:



(hat tip, Digby)

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Friday, October 31, 2008

From the Mouths of Conservatives: Equality is Not An American Value

Equality, which is the primary value of the left, is a European value, not an American value. Let me tell you that right now. I know this sounds offensive to half of my fellow Americans, because they have been Europeanized in their values. The French Revolution is not the American Revolution. The French Revolution said Liberty, Fraternity, Equality. The American Revolution said Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. We have lost touch with what our distinctive American values are. We have distinctive American values. … We have a better value system, and this is being protected by one of the two parties: the Republican party.

-Dennis Prager

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Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Al the Shoe Salesman

What's with all the old TV stars reprising their roles for Obama? This one's not as funny as the Ron Howard one, but it makes its point well...

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Saturday, October 25, 2008

From the Mouths of Conservatives -- COMMUNIST! COMMUNIST! COMMUNIST!

From a McCain rally yesterday in Denver:



(Hat tip, Digby)

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True.

This Obama ad has been floating on the web for a few days now, but I've been avoiding it because it sounded stupid to me. I finally watching it, and it's not. It might be the best ad anyone's done all year. Fantastic. Watch:

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Pilin' on Palin

I'm not feeling so wonderful this weekend, so I probably won't post that much. But Arielle, one of my six readers, sent me something I found amusing:

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What's a Terrorist?

Sarah Palin, who throws around the word a lot, doesn't seem to know... or at least she can't say that abortion clinic bombers are terrorists because she'll lose the only people who actually like her these days:

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Thursday, October 23, 2008

Ron Howard Reaches Back for Obama

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The Story Behind the Crazy Lady

From Talking Points Memo:

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RUDY FAIL

Here's a guy who knows the race is over:

Rudy in 2012

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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Six Reasons the Race is Over

... and why I'm concentrating on the Congressional Races...

From Charlie Cook, summarized nicely by Electoral-Vote.com:


  1. No candidate this far back two weeks out has ever won.
  2. Early voting is going strong and even if something big happens, those votes are already cast.
  3. The Democrats have a 10% advantage in party registration; in 2004 it was even.
  4. Obama is outspending McCain 4 to 1 in many states.
  5. There is no evidence for the so-called Bradley effect in the past 15 years.
  6. Obama is safe in all the Kerry states and ahead in half a dozen states Bush won.
If McCain were to win at this point, it would be the comeback to end all political comebacks. It just isn't going to happen. I'm going to put a wager on it -- if McCain does win, the background image on my blog for the next year will be me wearing a McCain-Palin T-shirt. Nah guh happen.

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David Sedaris on Undecided Voters

Per Balloon Juice:

To put [undecideds] in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. "Can I interest you in the chicken?" she asks. "Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?"

To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.

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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

What Makes a Real American?

Jon Stewart explained it to us last night... I really understood it when he laid it all out in an equation ("divided by the number of pieces of identification you need to buy a Sudafed"):



UPDATE: For those of you who aren't real Americans, Jason Jones shows us a few:

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You Don't Have To Vote to Be Cool

A couple weeks old, but I'm just catching up on Daily and Colbert since the move, and this was amazing.

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Palin on the Role of the VP

Why do they even let her speak?



Aw, that's something that Piper would ask me, as a second grader, also. That's a great question, Brandon, and a Vice President has a really great job, because no only are they there to support the President agenda, they're like a team member, the team mate to that President. But also, they're in charge of the United States Senate, so if they want to they can really get in there with the Senators and make a lot of good policy changes that will make life better for Brandon and his family and his classroom. And it's a great job and I look forward to having that job.

Except that's not the job... as a fan of Ralph Wiggum, I love the Kos headline: "Me fail civics? That's unpossible!"

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Monday, October 20, 2008

From the Mouths of Conservatives -- "The Simpson Effect"

Competely, blatantly stolen from Atrios:

I believe in this election we will NOT see "The Bradley Effect". Instead, we will see what I call "The Simpson Effect", meaning, Obama will get elected simply because he is BLACK, in spite of the facts that he is "guilty" of being a Socialist, a liar, guilty of being in the MIDDLE of the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae debaucle that was responsible for the financial crisis, guilty taking in over $200,000 in illegal foreign donations, helping to campaign for and continuing a friendship with Prime Minister Raila Odinga who muscled his way into his position by encouraging his followers to commit mass genocide against the oppostion party, guilty of being pals with terrorists criminals, America haters and like Ayers , Rezco, Khalidi, Odinga, guilty of manipulating ACORN and encouraging voter fraud, guilty of running for President of the US when his Indonesion citizenship disqualifies him, GUILTY, GUILTY- but nobody cares because he is BLACK- just like OJ Simpson.

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The Great Schlep In Action

From Ben Harris at JTA:

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Sunday, October 19, 2008

What's the Best We Can Do in the House? (October 19th Edition)

(Cross-posted at Daily Kos)

Here's the latest update of all of the Republican seats in Congress that the Dems currently have a chance to take. I've now used the ratings from sites in making this evaluation: The Cook Political Report (Cook), Electoral-Vote.com (EV), RealClearPolitics (RCP), Swing State Project (SSP), The Rothenberg Political Report (Rothenberg), and Congressional Quarterly (CQ); as well as the DCCC's Red-to-Blue, Emerging Races, and Races to Watch lists.

Currently, there are 86 Republican seats in play. If you have any others, please let me know in the comments (with links showing fundraising and/or polling numbers).

In the 110th Congress (2007-2008), the Dems hold 236 seats and the Republicans 199. The Dems are the majority in 27 of the states' delegations, the Reps 21, and 2 delegations are tied. In our best case scenario, the Democrats would have the majority in 40 states, the Republicans 7, with three ties (Idaho, Kansas, and Kentucky).

Here are the seats that at least one of those sites (or another source specified) rated as Dem pickup possibilities (New additions are signified with an asterisk):

Alabama: 7 districts, 5 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 4 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority

AL-02 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
AL-03* (DCCC, SSP, CQ)

Alaska: 1 district, 1 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

AK-AL (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Arizona: 8 districts, 4 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 6 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority

AZ-01 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
AZ-03 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Arkansas: 4 districts, 1 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 1 Rep, Dem Majority

California: 53 districts, 19 Republican, 7 in play
Best Case Scenario: 41 Dems, 12 Reps, Dem Majority

CA-03* (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
CA-04 (Cook, EV, RCP, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
CA-26* (DCCC, SSP, CQ)
CA-45* (DCCC)
CA-46* (Cook, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
CA-50* (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
CA-52* (DCCC)

Colorado: 7 districts, 3 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority

CO-04 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Connecticut: 5 districts, 1 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

CT-04 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Delaware: 1 district, 1 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 0 Dems, 1 Rep, Rep Majority

Florida: 25 districts, 16 currently Republican, 10 in play
Best Case Scenario: 19 Dems, 6 Reps, Dem Majority

FL-08 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
FL-09* (DCCC)
FL-10* (SSP)
FL-12* (SSP)
FL-13 (Cook, EV, DCCC, Rothenberg)
FL-15 (EV, SSP, CQ)
FL-18* (DCCC, SSP)
FL-21 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
FL-24 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
FL-25 (RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Georgia: 13 districts, 7 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 6 Dems, 7 Reps, Rep Majority

Hawaii: 2 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

Idaho: 2 districts, 2 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 1 Rep, Tie

ID-01 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Illinois: 19 districts, 8 Republican, 5 in play
Best Case Scenario: 16 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority

IL-06 (Cook, DCCC, CQ, Rothenberg)
IL-10 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
IL-11 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
IL-13* (DCCC, SSP, CQ)
IL-18* (DCCC, CQ)

Indiana: 9 districts, 4 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 7 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority

IN-03 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
IN-04* (SSP)

Iowa: 5 districts, 2 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

IA-04 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
IA-05 (DCCC, SSP)

Kansas: 4 districts, 2 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 2 Reps, Tie

Kentucky: 6 districts, 4 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 3 Reps, Tie

KY-02 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Louisiana: 7 districts, 4 Republican, 3 in play
Best Case Scenario: 6 Dems, 1 Rep, Dem Majority

LA-01* (DCCC, SSP, CQ)
LA-04 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, CQ, Rothenberg)
LA-07* (DCCC, SSP, CQ)

Maine: 2 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

Maryland: 8 districts, 2 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 8 Dems, 0 Rep, Dem Majority

MD-01 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
MD-06* (SSP)

Massachusetts: 10 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 10 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

Michigan: 15 districts, 9 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 8 Dems, 7 Reps, Dem Majority

MI-07 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
MI-09 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Minnesota: 8 districts, 3 Republican, 3 in play
Best Case Scenario: 8 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

MN-02 (Cook, DCCC, CQ)
MN-03 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
MN-06 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Mississippi: 4 districts, 1 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 1 Rep, Dem Majority

Missouri: 9 districts, 5 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 6 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority

MO-06 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
MO-09 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Montana: 1 district, 1 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 0 Dems, 1 Rep, Rep Majority

Nebraska: 3 districts, 3 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 2 Reps, Rep Majority

NE-02 (Cook, DCCC, CQ, Rothenberg)

Nevada: 3 districts, 2 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 0 Rep2, Dem Majority

NV-02 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
NV-03 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

New Hampshire: 2 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 0 Rep, Dem Majority

New Jersey: 13 districts, 6 Republican, 4 in play
Best Case Scenario: 11 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority

NJ-03 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
NJ-04* (DCCC)
NJ-05 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
NJ-07 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

New Mexico: 3 districts, 2 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

NM-01 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
NM-02 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

New York: 29 districts, 6 Republican, 4 in play
Best Case Scenario: 27 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority

NY-13 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
NY-25 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
NY-26 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
NY-29 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

North Carolina: 13 districts, 6 Republican, 3 in play
Best Case Scenario: 10 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority

NC-05 (SSP)
NC-08 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
NC-10 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)

North Dakota: 1 district, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

Ohio: 18 districts, 11 Republican, 7 in play
Best Case Scenario: 14 Dems, 4 Reps, Dem Majority

OH-01 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
OH-02 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
OH-07 (Cook, DCCC, CQ)
OH-08* (SSP)
OH-14* (SSP, CQ)
OH-15 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
OH-16 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Oklahoma: 5 districts, 4 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 3 Reps, Rep Majority

OK-01 (DCCC)

Oregon: 5 districts, 1 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 4 Dems, 1 Rep, Dem Majority

Pennsylvania: 19 districts, 8 Republican, 4 in play
Best Case Scenario: 15 Dems, 4 Reps, Dem Majority

PA-03 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
PA-06 (Cook, EV, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
PA-15 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
PA-18 (DCCC, SSP, CQ)

Rhode Island: 2 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 0 Reps, Rep Majority

South Carolina: 6 districts, 4 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 4 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority

SC-01* (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
SC-02* (DCCC, SSP, CQ)

South Dakota: 1 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

Tennessee: 9 districts, 4 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 4 Reps, Dem Majority

Texas: 32 districts, 19 Republican, 2 in play
Best Case Scenario: 15 Dems, 17 Reps, Rep Majority

TX-07 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
TX-10 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)

Utah: 3 districts, 2 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 2 Reps, Rep Majority

Vermont: 1 district, 0 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

Virginia: 11 districts, 8 Republican, 4 in play
Best Case Scenario: 7 Dems, 4 Reps, Dem Majority

VA-02 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)
VA-05 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ)
VA-10* (DCCC, SSP, CQ)
VA-11 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Washington: 9 districts, 3 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 7 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority

WA-08 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

West Virginia: 3 districts, 1 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

WV-02* (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

Wisconsin: 8 district, 3 Republican, 0 in play
Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority

Wyoming: 1 district, 1 Republican, 1 in play
Best Case Scenario: 1 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority

WY-AL (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg)

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Roll With It, Johnny...



Awesome.

(hat tip, Howie)

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Some Recommended Reading Material

I've been working a bit today on tomorrow's update of the my list of Congressional races in play. One of the blogs I've been consulting a bit is Down With Tyranny!.

I can't recommend it more. If you're feeling politically wonky and a bit bored, you can get lost in it. Good stuff.

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Friday, October 17, 2008

Races, Races, Races...

I'm planning on updating my list of Congressional seats that the Dems could possibly get their hands on in November on Sunday. There's going to be a lot to add, looking at the Cook Report's latest update. 25 updated races, all in favor of the Dems (though I'm sure Tim Mahoney's race in Florida will be updated the other way fairly soon).

In the meantime, for the real nerds, here's Swing State Project's latest update on the state of the state legislature races around the country.

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From the Mouths of Conservatives -- Obama = Lenin

Barack Obama as a murderous Communist dictator is a common theme among wingnut Republicans, and the drumbeat keeps getting stronger. Here's a quote from a rightie on Silicon Investor (yes, I spend too much time there):

Eventually [Obama] or his successor will make laws [business leaders] cannot avoid breaking, put them in jail, kill them, and take over the companies. Obama's people, ACORN and Democrats will then be the super rich.

They really believe this stuff...

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Thursday, October 16, 2008

A Reverse Bradley Effect?

For the politically uninitiated, the Bradley Effect is named for Tom Bradley, the former mayor of Los Angeles who ran for governor of California in 1982 and lost even though he was winning significantly a few days before the election. Since then political conventional wisdom would have it that going into an election, a black candidate needs to have a fairly large lead in the polls to compensate for the number of people who tell pollsters they will vote for the black candidate to avoid admitting that they will not vote for a black candidate.

Politico has some numbers and data that show that the "Bradley Effect" may have been simple polling error, and that Bradley's opponent actually did close the gap in the days before the election.

Jeff, a business associate of mine in my Albany office, floated an interesting idea yesterday. I'm not sure that I agree with it, but the essence of it is that there might be a "Reverse Bradley Effect," where people don't want to admit they MIGHT vote for a black candidate but vote for Obama because they feel like it's in their economic self-interest. Some interesting evidence from Ben Smith at Politico, about a focus group's reaction to a McCain ad:

Reagan Dems and Independents. Call them blue-collar plus. Slightly more Target than Walmart.

Yes, the spot worked. Yes, they believed the charges against Obama. Yes, they actually think he's too liberal, consorts with bad people and WON'T BE A GOOD PRESIDENT...but they STILL don't give a f***. They said right out, "He won't do anything better than McCain" but they're STILL voting for Obama.

The two most unreal moments of my professional life of watching focus groups:

54 year-old white male, voted Kerry '04, Bush '00, Dole '96, hunter, NASCAR fan...hard for Obama said: "I'm gonna hate him the minute I vote for him. He's gonna be a bad president. But I won't ever vote for another god-damn Republican. I want the government to take over all of Wall Street and bankers and the car companies and Wal-Mart run this county like we used to when Reagan was President."

The next was a woman, late 50s, Democrat but strongly pro-life. Loved B. and H. Clinton, loved Bush in 2000. "Well, I don't know much about this terrorist group Barack used to be in with that Weather guy but I'm sick of paying for health insurance at work and that's why I'm supporting Barack.">

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Blood for Oil?

Did anyone else notice that while talking about Biden not being qualified because he voted against the first Gulf War, McCain said that we went to war to keep our oil supply from being disrupted? (thanks to Steve for the link)

He voted against the first Gulf War. He voted against it and, obviously, we had to take Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait or it would've threatened the Middle Eastern world [oil] supply.


Also, after the debate, CBS got Joe the Plumber on the phone and:

1. He was asked about if Obama's $250,000 tax bracket would affect him, and he said, something to the effect of, "No, but it's a slippery slope -- if he decides now that $250,000 is rich, next he'll decide that $100,000 is rich, and then who knows?" No mention of employees or an actual business.

2. He compared Obama to Sammy Davis, Jr.

Oof. One hell of a campaign surrogate.

UPDATE: Looks like Joe isn't even registered to vote.

LATER UPDATE: He actually is registered to vote, and a Republican. Not only that, but he's a staunch right-winger who is against Social Security... and aside from that, he's a relative of Charles Keating! And a schmuck.

But he's Neil Cavuto's "kinda plumber...":



EVEN LATER UPDATE: It's been pointed out that there's no solid evidence on the Keating relation yet... at least for sure that Joe and Robert Wurzelbacher are related (Robert Wurzelbacher is, for sure, Keating's son-in-law). But I'll keep you posted.

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Quick Debate Reaction

I'm heading to Albany for a couple of days early tomorrow, but before I hit the sack, I just want to echo what Nate Silver said:

"Congratulations, President Obama."

A twenty-six second summary of how this one went (watch McCain's face):

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Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Palinites Gone Wild

From a Palin rally in Ohio:



Boy, does this woman attract the kooks...

(hat tip, okayokayokay)

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Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Like Rats...



(hat tip, MyDD)

LATE UPDATE: A list of the rats... (thanks, Ted)

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Monday, October 13, 2008

What's the Best We Can Do? (October 13th Edition)

(Cross posted at Daily Kos)

(This is truly the wonkiest thing I've ever posted to this site)

Markos mentioned today that we are working toward a 100 seat Democratic majority in the House.

This morning, I was talking to a friend, and wondered aloud if we could reach a 2/3 majority, which would be 290 seats (to 145 Republican seats). We'd need to gain 54 to do that.

Trying to gauge the possibilities, I spent a good portion of the day looking over the ratings on Cook, Real Clear Politics, and Electoral-Vote.com, to get a baseline of the Republican seats that are in play.

Being that I'm looking at only the most optimistic scenario, I ignored all seats that are currently Dem and included as "in play" any Republican seats that are rated anything less than "Safe/Solid Republican."

It was a good feeling to see Microsoft Excel auto-fill "Solid Democratic" much more often than "Solid Republican."

Anyway, here are the seats that at least one of those sites rated as Dem pickup possibilities:

Alabama
AL-02 (Cook, EV, RCP)

Alaska
AK-AL (Cook, EV, RCP)

Arizona
AZ-01 (Cook, EV, RCP)
AZ-03 (Cook, RCP)

California
CA-04 (Cook, EV, RCP)

Colorado
CO-04 (Cook, EV, RCP)

Connecticut
CT-04 (Cook, EV, RCP)

Florida
FL-08 (Cook, RCP)
FL-13 (Cook, EV)
FL-15 (EV)
FL-21 (Cook, EV, RCP)
FL-24 (Cook, EV, RCP)
FL-25 (RCP)

Idaho
ID-01 (Cook, RCP)

Illinois
IL-06 (Cook)
IL-10 (Cook, EV, RCP)
IL-11 (Cook, EV, RCP)

Indiana
IN-03 (Cook)

Iowa
IA-04 (Cook)

Kentucky
KY-02 (Cook)

Louisiana
LA-04 (Cook, RCP)

Maryland
MD-01 (Cook, RCP)

Michigan
MI-07 (Cook, RCP)
MI-09 (Cook, RCP)

Minnesota
MN-02 (Cook)
MN-03 (Cook, EV, RCP)
MN-06 (Cook)

Missouri
MO-06 (Cook, EV, RCP)
MN-09 (Cook, RCP)

Nebraska
NE-02 (Cook)

Nevada
NV-02 (Cook)
NV-03 (Cook, EV, RCP)

New Jersey
NJ-03 (Cook, EV, RCP)
NJ-05 (Cook)
NJ-07 (Cook, EV, RCP)

New Mexico
NM-01 (Cook, RCP)
NM-02 (Cook, RCP)

New York
NY-13 (Cook, EV, RCP)
NY-25 (Cook, EV, RCP)
NY-26 (Cook, EV, RCP)
NY-29 (Cook, EV, RCP)

North Carolina
NC-08 (Cook, EV, RCP)
NC-10 (Cook)

Ohio
OH-01 (Cook, EV, RCP)
OH-02 (Cook, EV, RCP)
OH-07 (Cook)
OH-15 (Cook, EV, RCP)
OH-16 (Cook, EV, RCP)

Pennsylvania
PA-03 (Cook, RCP)
PA-06 (Cook, EV)
PA-15 (Cook)

Texas
TX-07 (Cook)
TX-10 (Cook)

Virginia
VA-02 (Cook)
VA-05 (Cook)
VA-11 (Cook, EV, RCP)

Washington
WA-08 (Cook, EV, RCP)

Wyoming
WY-AL (Cook)


Of note, aside from the last Republican seat in New England (CT-04) being in serious jeopardy, every Republican seat in Minnesota and Nevada are possible, and we can also grab four of the six seats that the Republicans still hold in New York. Real opportunities to step on their necks.

All in all, 58 states in play, just according to those sites. I know that there are others that aren't being picked up -- for instance, CA-03 and possibly MD-06. I'll include those in a future edition, with links to polls and such.

So, if everything moves in our favor, we can get that 2/3rds. But how many more? What's the BEST we can do? That's where I need your help. Between now and the next edition, if you have other races that should be included in this list, please post them in the comments along with links to relevant polls or fundraising numbers showing that the race really is in play.

I for one, won't be happy until we have every last Republican seat in the House and Senate. What can I say -- I'm a dreamer!

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Sunday, October 12, 2008

The BEST Obama Impression I've Seen



(hat tip, D-Day)

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Wednesday, October 08, 2008

My Friends, My Friends...

I don't have a lot to say about the debate tonight, other than I think Obama won by a bit (the poll or two I've seen seem to indicate he won by a lot more). McCain's last chance to make this a contest is at next week's debate, but I think this one's over. More tomorrow.

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Saturday, October 04, 2008

Joe Six-Who?

It hit me last night -- Isn't it insulting and patronizing that someone like Sarah Palin would use a term like "Joe Six-Pack" to describe the "average American?" I mean, who the hell is Joe Six-Pack, and what makes him so average? What does it say about the average American if the accessory attributed to him is a six-pack of beer? How the heck do Republicans think they can get away with (and sometimes do get away with) getting people to vote against their economic interests by calling them condescending names? Isn't that the essence of "elitist" snobbery?

I woke up this morning to an AP writer asking basically the same questions:

Also, on the same topic, what Digby said.

UPDATE: Matthew Yglesias on Palin as "Meta-Candidate."

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The Ground Game

When it comes to elections, The term "ground game" refers to the campaign activities of people on the ground -- people making phone calls, registering voters, staffing field offices, etc...

The Republicans' ground game is usually a force to be reckoned with, and the Democrats' has often been so-so. Thanks to people like Howard Dean and Barack Obama, the Democrats' ground game is incredibly strong. It's been that way for Obama's whole campaign. He's been opening offices in every state, many in which Democrats don't normally compete, like Indiana. But I'd been under the assumption that the Republicans' still were doing pretty well on the ground. Yesterday, Sean Quinn of the amazing FiveThirtyEight.com dropped a bomb on that assumption:

Something interesting is happening with John McCain's campaign. Up until now, we've had no trouble gaining access to field offices and volunteers. Here in St. Louis, we were told by Tina Hervey, Missouri Republican State Party Press Secretary, that she had never heard of FiveThirtyEight, and while they trusted Politico, we were people who they had to decide whether we "shouldn't or don't need to be talking to." (McCain's Missouri press secretary actually works out of Iowa, and did not return calls or email.) I told Tina that's not a story we wanted to write, that this was our first Republican resistance, and that while she may not have heard of us, we'd probably go over 2.5 million site visits this week, now that we're regularly past 400,000 per weekday. I told her I'd hold off writing her flat refusal and give her the opportunity to change her mind.

No budging. We were told that we’d be asked to leave public field offices we now attempted to visit. We did not get any promised follow-up helping get access to the post-debate Palin rally last night, and we were locked out. Hmm.

Let's be clear. We've observed no comparison between these ground campaigns. To begin with, there's a 4-1 ratio of offices in most states. We walk into McCain offices to find them closed, empty, one person, two people, sometimes three people making calls. Many times one person is calling while the other small clutch of volunteers are chatting amongst themselves. In one state, McCain's state field director sat in one of these offices and, sotto voce, complained to us that only one man was making calls while the others were talking to each other about how much they didn't like Obama, which was true. But the field director made no effort to change this. This was the state field director.

Only for the first time the other day did we see a McCain organizer make a single phone call. So we've now seen that once. The McCain organizers seem to operate as maitre Ds. Let me escort you to your phone, sir. Pick any one of this sea of empty chairs. I'll be sitting over here if you need any assistance.

Given a choice between taking embarrassing photos of empty phone banks, we give McCain's people the chance to pose for photos to show us the action for what they continually claim we "just missed." No more. We stop into offices at all open hours of the day, but generally more in the afternoon and evening. "Call time," for both campaigns, is all day, but the time when folks over 65 are generally targeted begins in late afternoon and goes til 8 or 9pm. Universally, McCain's people stop earlier. Even when we show up at 6:15pm, we're told we just missed the big phone bank, or to come back in 30 minutes. If we show up an hour later, we "just missed it" again.

The McCain offices are also calm, sedate. Little movement. No hustle. In the Obama offices, it's a whirlwind. People move. It's a dynamic bustle. You can feel it in our photos.

Up to this point, we've been giving McCain's ground campaign a lot of benefit of the doubt. We can't stop convincing ourselves that there must -- must -- be a warehouse full of 1,000 McCain volunteers somewhere in a national, central location just dialing away. This can't be all they're doing. Because even in a place like Colorado Springs, McCain's ground campaign is getting blown away by the Obama efforts. It doesn't mean Obama will win Colorado Springs, but it means Obama's campaign will not look itself in the mirror afterward and ask, "what more could we have done?"

You could take every McCain volunteer we've seen doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add up to the same as Obama's single Thornton, CO office. Or his single Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each other.

This may be shaping up to be a serious blowout in Obama's favor...

UPDATE: For an example of how good Obama's ground game is, check this out.

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Friday, October 03, 2008

Lucy

From Molly Ivors at Eschaton (usually of Whiskey Fire):

Am I the only one who thought Palin was channeling Lucy Van Pelt last night?

The difference, of course, is that Sarah would shoot Snoopy.


Poor dog :(

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Thursday, October 02, 2008

VP Debate Liveblog #11

Ifill: Closing statements, please...

Peanut gallery in the bar: "We've totally lost interest and we're not going to let you hear the end of this. Sorry!"

All in all, this debate got us exactly nowhere, except we didn't get the Palin gaffe. So, boring. Very boring. Bob Schieffer thought Biden was very good and Palin was just OK.

This concludes this liveblog... Next one in another two years! I'll try to do the election, but no promises.

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VP Debate Liveblog #10

Ifill: Time to turn this into a job interview. Your biggest weakness, please?

Palin: Got none. I'm perfect, like America. So is John McCain.

Biden: I'm too passionate! And I ain't changing. Except for when it comes to change. I LOVE to change things. Sarah, I'll one-up your live family with my dead family! McSame! McSame! McSame! (Lexi: That was kind of hardcore.)

Palin: Maverick! Maverick! (Take two more shots) (Lexi: "Cripes, if I hear the word "maverick" one more time..."). The Republican party is a really diverse bunch of white people. McCain's your man for change...

Biden: He's no maverick! He's the same! How many times do I have to say it?

Ifill: Blah blah change blah

Biden: Blah blah blah change blah change Roe v. Wade blah

Palin: I don't compromise -- other people compromise with me and then I compromise with them.

Ifill: How would you foster bipartisanship?

Biden: By not questioning others' motivations. Change. (Another shot)

Palin: Some talking points about creating jobs, lowering taxes, and energy independence. Democrats want to increase your taxes!

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VP Debate Liveblog #9

Ifill: Wait, I thought you guys didn't want to be VP!

Palin: I was joking! And so was Biden, but I was funnier.

Biden: I think this question is stupid, so I'm going to talk about education. Well, on second thought, I have a good answer, so what the heck? Obama's gonna listen to me.

Palin: (Lexi: "Wait, what?")

Biden: The VP is kinda like the President's second wife, unless his name is Cheney, then he's his "top."

Next post!

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VP Debate Liveblog #8

Ifill: What would you do if you became king?

Biden: I'd have an awesome foreign policy -- it's be nothing like Bush's.

McCain: Pretty much the same stuff as McCain, 'cept I'd add a little twist of Wasila for flavor. Government and taxes suck.

Biden: Once again, McSame!

Everybody around me: I'm loud and annoying and I don't care what they're saying anymore, so I don't care if you can hear the debate either.

Biden: Change we can believe in...

Palin: "Say it ain't so, Joe!" "Your wife, God bless her...."

Two girls: "Doggone it!"

Woman at the table: "I'm so proud of her."

Palin: Vague stuff about education being important.

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VP Debate Liveblog #7

Ifill: What about interventionism?

Biden: Genocide is bad. Let's stop it.

Palin: I'm an outsider. You're a flip-flopper. Which one do Americans prefer? I really paid attention to politics before I got the nomination... really! Alaska is widely known as a leader against genocide. Just not widely enough to reach the elitists in the "lower 48."

Biden: I didn't flip-flop! I didn't really want this war. But Satan, I mean, Cheney, did, and McCain's his friend.

Palin: Talk to the hand. The media's gonna get you, you liar.

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VP Debate Liveblog #6

Biden: McSame!

Woman at the table: "She looks mischievious."

Ifill: Are nuclear weapons bad?

Palin: I don't know, but I'm cool with nukeular ones, but only in the hands of white people... those brown people and yellow people can't handle them. We, being the white people, are fighting terrorism and building schools!

Biden: General Not-Petraeus in Afghanistan said keep your surgey hands off of my territory! Something about the cost of Iraq vs. Afghanistan. McCain digs nukes.

Palin: It's my party, and I'll surge if I want to!

Biden: I have two favorite Republicans, and they're not surgemeisters.

Next post!

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VP Debate Liveblog #5

Ifill: Iraq?

Palin: The search worked. You didn't believe the mighty Petraeus or St. John, but it did. And we'll get out of their someday. We have a plan! Trust us! Obama didn't vote to fund the troops. Slips the word "Shia" in to sound smart.

Biden: I didn't hear a plan. And McCain and Obama voted against the same bill. Gotta have a timeline to get out; We can't spend our own money to help the people we bombed the ever-loving-fuck out of... they have to use their own. But we'll end the end the war.

Palin: Surrender monkey! French frog! The surge worked, dammit! Why can't Obama admit it? Dropping Iraqi names incorrectly from an index card... Starts to get pissed about Obama trying to take money from the troops.

Biden: McCain really did vote against the same goddamn bill! McCain really doesn't know squat about the war or anything else. Obama called it all correctly (really pushing it).

Ifill: What's worse, nuclear Iran or rogue Pakistan?

Biden: Both so scary (wets himself a little)! But Pakistan's more scary -- they have nukes, but Iran doesn't. McCain weakens us by keeping us in Iraq instead of Pakistan. We need to build democracy in Pakistan (like we did in Iraq?). No, not like in Iraq. We're really going to help them. And we're gonna get that guy bin Laden.

Palin: Petraeus and the leader of Al-Qaida say we should stay in Iraq, so we're gonna stay. I love Israel (Meredith: "oh she went there")! Pakistan, whatever. Iran is so scary! It's gonna destroy Israel! Castro's scary, too, but Obama loves him and all the other bad guys. Nukeular, nukeular, nukeular. They hate our gosh-darned freedom!

Biden: Obama does NOT love bad guys. If he loves bad guys, so do five secretaries of state and some Republicans! And McCain's hatred for Spain falls mainly on the plain!

Ifill: Two-state solution?

Palin: Yes! And Rice is working on it, as will we. Need I remind you I love Israel? If you don't want to make sexy time with Israel, you want another Holocaust. (Meredith: "Wow. She's reading AIPAC talking points."

Biden: I love Israel the mostest! I have a boner for it right now! McCain would need Viagra to do it with Israel.

Palin: We can have a threesome with Israel! Yeah, the administration has screwed up, but it's not really anyone's fault. MAVERICK HO!

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VP Debate Liveblog #4

Ifill: Do you support benefits for same-sex couples?

Biden: Yes. It's fair and called for in the Constitution (really? I think I could run a search for "gay" or "heterosexual" on the text of the Constitution and not turn up anything).

Palin: No, but I can hedge a little while choking back spittle. I don't support gay marriage. It's icky.

Ifill: Do you support gay marriage?

Biden: No. Neither does Obama. (Why do we live in a country of troglodytes?)

Next post!

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VP Debate Liveblog #3

Ifill: Would you have supported the bankruptcy bill of 2005? McCain did (Biden CERTAINLY did, and I can't excuse him).

Palin: Yes.

Biden: Obama and I disagreed on that... changes subject to subprime mortgages... brings it back saying that Obama will do other things to help people in foreclosure. McCain wouldn't.

Palin: Not true. But I don't have to say why. I want to talk about energy! Drill, baby, drill! (She's really working up a head of steam.

Ifill: OK< let's talk about energy. Climate change?

Palin: Alaska feels climate change more than anyone (Meredith: "alaska knows about climate change more so than say louisiana") . But it's not man's fault. I don't want to talk about the causes (Lexi: "she's losin' it.") Other countries don't care about global warming, so why should we?

(Adrien: "you need to include biden laughing at her in every shot")

Biden: Of course it's man-made. We're running out of oil and we're so dependent on it. McCain doesn't care about alternative energy. Obama's for clean coal and safe nuclear energy (all tilting at windmills -- gotta call Biden out on that). We've gotta drill, too.

Palin: "Drill, baby, drill!." Joe, if you don't want to drill, you hate America! Biden doesn't really support clean coal.

Biden: I do too!

Next post!

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VP Debate Liveblog #2

Palin: I cut taxes. I don't have to answer your stupid questions.

Ifill: It's been said McCain's health insurance plan will raise taxes on people and cut 5 million from health insurance rolls.

Biden: Obama will not raise taxes on anyone making less than $250,000. McCain will cut taxes for the wealthy. Tax breaks need to go to the middle class.

Palin: You're a Commie! You're going to tax small businesses. Todd and I are middle class! Remember I have a family!

Ifill: Can you talk about McCain's health care plan?

Palin: Yes, we'll give a tax credit (but it's still going to cost people more money and increase risk)... Government can't run healthcare! We Republicans have shown we can't run anything!

Biden: It's not "income redistribution" it's "fairness." Picks up on the real costs of McCain's healthcare plan. Very well done, Joe. It's the "ultimate bridge to nowhere" (huh?).

Ifill: What can't we pay for because the economy's doing badly?

Biden: Some of our foreign activity.... but we can't pull back on providing healthcare or creating alternative energy. We need to eliminate wasteful spending, like offshore tax avoidance, which is "unpatriotic" (good point).

Palin: McCain doesn't ever tell different things to different groups. I took on oil companies.

Woman behind me: "Bless their hearts".

Palin: Obama voted for an energy plan that gave tax breaks to oil companies.

Ifill: Nothing to take off the table?

Palin: Nothing. I know my talking points.

Biden: Obama voted for that bill because of its inclusion of funding for alternative energy. McCain's the one that wants to cut taxes for oil companies!

Next post!

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VP Debate Liveblog #1

It's about to begin. I'm in the hotel lobby at the Albany Marriott (I'll explain later). I've got a peanut gallery of people around me, and if they say anything good, I'll let you know :)

It's time to start....

Gwen Ifill is moderating.

The candidates come out -- Palin: "Hey, can I call you Joe?" Weird.

Question about the bailout.

Biden: Attacks Bush administration about excess and deregulation, letting Wall Street run wild. Obama has four criteria for his rescue plan -- they involve oversight, restrictions of executives making money from the bailout, etc... (I personally agree with all of them, but I don't think that Obama's really sticking to that).

Woman here: "Put some lipstick on!"

Palin: Something about a soccer game. People are afraid. McCain represents reform and tried to prevent this two years ago with bipartisan efforts, but no one listened to him. He suspended his campaign to deal with this (he didn't, really, but that was suprisingly coherent).

Biden: Talks about McCain's "fundamentals of the economy are strong." John McCain flip-flops.

Palin: HE WAS TALKING ABOUT THE WORKFORCE! (total, utter crap). I'm a reformer and a maverick, and we put partisan politics aside. Obama's a partisan. McCain's a maverick!

Waiter: "Who's the comedian on Saturday Night Live?"

Ifill: Who was at fault for the subprime meltdown?

Palin: "Darned right, it was the predator lenders." Hockey moms and Joe Six Packs, blah blah. People can learn lessons from this and not use debt in the future.

Woman behind me: "Pretty pathetic."

Biden: Obama warned two years ago about this. John called for more and more deregulation (Very, very true). It's not people's faults they're in debt. They can't even afford to fill their tanks.

Palin: Biden loves taxes. Obama loves taxes. Taxes kill jobs.

Biden: Palin's a liar. And she's not answering questions...

Next post!

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What to Watch for in Tonight's Debate

Let's not kid ourselves.... pretty much no one is watching the debate for Biden. Republicans are watching it to cheer for her, and Democrats are hoping for a train wreck. I happen to think they're going to get that train wreck...

Since Palin's initial rather inflammatory but compelling introduction to the country at the Republican Convention, she's shown herself to be not only a dud, but incredibly ignorant. She can't name a Supreme Court case other than Roe V. Wade, she can't name a single newspaper she reads... It's not terribly surprising; she's a GOPACer. For those not in the know, GOPAC is an incubator for conservative politicians, and the baby of Newt Gingrich (remember him?). Kagro X on Daily Kos provides some good background:

Back in the heyday of GOPAC, when it was Newt Gingrich's operation, one of the chief functions of the organization was to equip the Republican "farm team" with the kind of rhetoric Newt was well-known for. Attention grabbing, bombastic, and most importantly, focus-group tested for resonance. Right down to the molecular level. They actually used to distribute a list of words they wanted you to use to describe Republicans and Republican policies, and those they wanted used to describe Democrats and Democratic policies.

For most Republicans, that rudimentary training is usually enough to get you through most situations. They rarely, if ever, face the national press corps for a full and wide-ranging examination of the breadth of their policy positions, instead perhaps occasionally doing national interviews on specific topics of expertise. Only the top leaders from each party tend to find themselves in a position like Palin will be facing on Thursday, and even then only for perhaps ten minutes at a time. It's highly unusual for such an untested politician to find themselves in this bright a spotlight, and it's only due to the fact that a vice presidential nominee can literally be picked out of the blue and thrust into the spotlight with no special prerequisites that this can even happen. Ordinarily, people choose their running mates with, you know, a little care and forethought. And that usually produces a selection who's actually ready for the job.

Not this time. This time, we're being given a chance to watch one of the GOPAC spawn in the larval stage, not yet fully developed, and we'll have a chance to see the limitations of trying to teach someone to talk and argue like Newt Gingrich before they're ready.


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She hasn't helped herself by executing her training poorly of late, but there's only so much you can do once your questioners realize that you have only one set play for when you get in trouble: 1) repeat back some of the words in the question to establish that you're "answering" it; 2) parry by steering the frame of your answer toward a talking point that bears some relation to the subect of the question; 3) spray some transitional buzzwords that help you segue from what you were asked to what you have prepared to say, and; 4) deliver the focus group-tested answer you originally planned, even if it's kind of a non-sequitur.

From another Kagro X post, he provides a story from a former opponent of hers when she ran for governor of Alaska in 2006:

On April 18, 2006, Palin and I sat together in a hotel coffee shop comparing campaign trail notes. As we talked about the debates, Palin made a comment that highlights the phenomenon that Biden is up against.

"Andrew, I watch you at these debates with no notes, no papers, and yet when asked questions, you spout off facts, figures, and policies, and I'm amazed. But then I look out into the audience and I ask myself, 'Does any of this really matter?' " Palin said.


Pretty much tells you all you need to know about her attitude towards politics and governance.

The debate is set up so that the candidates can't question each other, which will probably help keep Palin on her game. But I think we'll still get some unprecedented screwups (fingers crossed). If we don't, it's likely to be a boring debate.

Reading this report from the Onion, though, I do expect that Palin will be very prepared on foreign policy.

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VP Debate Liveblog Tonight

Haven't done a liveblog in a while; what the heck? It should be quite the spectacle tonight... See you at 9!

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Thursday, September 25, 2008

A New Low



Worse than Bush. How do these guys do it?

Mencken, eat your heart out.

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Friday, August 29, 2008

High Technology Political Communications

I didn't watch much of the Democratic Convention, because, ironically enough, I was too busy trying to keep up with what the political blogs had to say about it. I do have to say, though, that I think Biden was a pretty good choice for VP; if nothing else, he'll make a great hatchet man for Obama.

When Obama announced his selection for VP, he made history by doing so to his supporters through text message.

I hear that along the same lines, McCain will be making his announcement by carrier pigeon. Stay tuned!

UPDATE: It looks like I missed one doozy of an acceptance speech by Obama.

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Monday, August 25, 2008

A Request for Our Nominee

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Friday, August 08, 2008

Dammit, John...

The news about John Edwards is extremely disappointing... I'm suddenly relieved he's not our candidate this year.

I don't have a lot to say about it, but I'll link you to some people who do.

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Tuesday, August 05, 2008

I Suddenly Have a Little Respect for Paris Hilton

See more funny videos at Funny or Die

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Saturday, July 12, 2008

Am I the Only One Not Surprised?

Just got back after a month of self-imposed hiatus from politics after Hillary dropped out of the race. Obama appears to have tacked to the center since then; for example on the surveillance legislation and faith-based initiatives.

All of the long-time Obamaniacs seem to be surprised by this (I'm not one of them, remember)... I'm not. I've always been a little uncomfortable with him (and Hillary) because he's just not really a liberal. Remember his 2004 keynote speech at the DNC?

We liberals are not going to love him as President, but after 8 years of Bush and faced with 4 more in McCain, Obama's still pretty damn appetizing...

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Sunday, June 08, 2008

Taking a Break

Now that we have our nominees, I'm going to take a month off from politics online and in real life to get a bit of a breather. I'm hoping that by the time I start following again, Obama is up 10 points.

Fingers crossed...

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Sunday, June 01, 2008

A Typical Hillary Supporter?



(hat tip Balloon Juice)

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Sunday, May 11, 2008

Hillary's Case in Five Minutes



Amy Poehler does an awful Hillary Clinton (not surprising as Saturday Night Live has been terrible for going on fifteen years), but she manages to sum up Clinton's arguments pretty succinctly.

By the way I'm down in DC for the next couple of days, home on Tuesday, and in NYC on Wednesday.

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Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Not Sleeping in the City That Doesn't Sleep

Obama defeated Hillary handily in NC, and still stands a chance of pulling off an upset in Indiana. If he wins that, I think she'll concede tomorrow. I want to see what happens, but I need to get up early in the morning for a meeting in Midtown. Dilemmas, dilemmas...

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Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Frustrated by PA

9.5 points? That means nothing. Obama still has an insurmountable delegate lead, but Clinton will stay in because she's playing by her own rules.

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Monday, April 21, 2008

We've Missed You, John

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Friday, April 11, 2008

Here Comes McCain Again

Video #2 from the McCain Girls... it's been tough to find because YouTube took it down, but I dug it up again for the time being.



Are they for real? I still don't know. My guess is now probably not, but either way, they're a political phenomenon. Either they think they're doing something to help their candidate and are so unbelievably mistaken, or it's an incredible piece of subversive reverse psychology, demonstrating just how square John McCain is -- it really fits in with his geezerness.

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