New Rules -- Not the '90s
Labels: 2008 Election, Humor, Politics
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Tuesday, November 11, 2008Thursday, November 06, 2008Core Reading (or, The Wheat)Now that the election is more or less over (save for a couple of House and Senate seats), I'm going to slow down a bit on my normal online reading habits. For the next few months, I'm going to stick with the following really great blogs:Daily Kos Digby's Hullabaloo D-Day Silicon Investor Talking Points Memo The Phil Nugent Experience Down With Tyranny! All supremely informative and entertaining. I'll miss some of the rest, but a guy's gotta sorta kinda have a life, or at least work more :) I'm also going to take January off from everything political, as I do after each election. Looking forward to that. Labels: 2008 Election, Personal, Politics The Next Generation -- More Tolerant?From Ari at The Edge of the West:As you might imagine, I'm deliriously happy today. As I was putting my older son to sleep last night, I had just heard about Ohio. I explained to the boy that Obama was going to win the election and become the first African-American President of the United States. The boy looked up at me, eyes filled with wonder, as one's kids will on occasion, and said, "Really? The first? How can that be?" My son will grow up in a different country than I did, a country where more things seem possible, where more things are possible. The boy woke up today, left his bed, and stepped into his world of new possibilities. He marched into my bedroom and inquired about the election. I told him that Obama had won. He then asked about Proposition 8. I told him that it passed, that a majority of Californians chose to annul the marriages of several of his cousins and the parents of two of his good friends. He didn't say, "Really? How can that be?" But he was upset - even after I explained that the arc of the moral universe is long, but that it bends toward justice. He's off to school now, and I'm left feeling like I should have worked harder against Proposition 8, like I should have spent more time phonebanking, should have raised more money. I'm ashamed that I was so overconfident, so sure that the day of justice was finally at hand. My son takes immeasurable comfort in his parents' marriage. His little cousins, his friends from school, the people he knows who will be most directly affected by Prop 8, awoke today into a world without that comfort. The arc of the moral universe feels unbearably long right now, even as a I celebrate President-elect Obama. I can't believe I'm talking about a next generation... Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Politics Wednesday, November 05, 2008The UpshotWell, I'm a little disappointed, actually. Just like me to be a downer, right?After the election was called last night, I spent time talking to the crowd at the bar at the hotel where I'm staying in suburban Boston. About half were sorta rednecky Republicans and half were Dems. All said they supported Obama, though all of the Republicans repeatedly stated that McCain was a "true American" and a "true patriot" because he was a POW. When I asked them why they'd support Obama over McCain, the Republicans, to a man, replied, "because we need change." At the same time, they challenged me on my support for Obama and wouldn't listen to any reasoning that had anything to do with any issues. Change is all well and good, but I'd love to see some sort of acknowledgment from Obama voters, other than staunch, involved Democrats, that there's at least one not-so-abstract reason for it. Maybe I'm asking too much. But one of the narratives I heard last night at the bar as well as in the newspapers and on the interweb today was that African-Americans "have no excuse anymore" when it comes to their success, and some have gone as far as to say that it proves that racism is dead and buried. Now, while I've been one of the first to say that racism has diminished enough that Obama's campaign could overcome it, it's far from gone. It took an incredible, unbelievable black man running the best campaign in anyone's memory versus an underwhelming, doddering old man in the shadow of the worst President in the history of this country to put a black man in office. The Onion put it best in two headlines today: Nation Finally Shitty Enough To Make Social Progress Black Man Given Nation's Worst Job Bernard Avishai thinks there's more to it: I confess a certain impatience, on this poignant day, with all the earnest talk about how America achieved something remarkable yesterday by electing our first African-American president, as if the choice has been about race all along. I do not mean to diminish an historic first, like electing a Catholic in 1960; I, too, choked-up when John Lewis spoke. But relief today is not about Americans choosing an obviously black man over a white man, which proves we can come to terms with our past. It is about our choosing an obviously brilliant, reciprocal man over a thick, cynical one--a man who articulates a coherent vision of global commonwealth over someone advancing vague, military patriotism--which proves we can come to terms with our future. Racism, it is true, did not confound the choice, as some predicted it would. But racism has not confounded mainstream admiration for The Cosby Show or Orprah or Tiger Woods--and hasn't for some time. Most of the 46% who voted for John McCain feel deeply anxious about a world in transition, where erudition, open-mindedness and intellectual discipline matter more and more, and their own sheer willingness to labor hard matters less and less. I bet they are more skittish about Obama's supremely elegant mind, his worldliness, than his dark skin; more drawn to the repudiation of "elitism" than to the rejection of "welfare." So our choices are: 1. A significant portion of the country is still racist, 2. A significant portion of the country deliberately doesn't want to see an intelligent person in office, or 3. A bit of both. Doesn't reflect terribly well, but I guess #3 isn't all that surprising to too many of us. A nice segue from Digby into something else that doesn't reflect all that well on us, Yes on California's Proposition 8, which takes the right to marry away from gays in California: It's terrific that we are seeing a decline in racism to the extent that we are able to elect a black president. We've come a long way and there's no taking anything away from those who waged the struggle over all these centuries. But our society is not truly changed if it's still writing discrimination into law. It's as if we just can't be America unless we are taking active steps to marginalize somebody. So true. We always need at least one enemy and at least like half a dozen underclasses. We just didn't get as many House or Senate seats as I'd hoped, though 60 Senate seats is still a vague possibility. It looks like Alaska managed to reelect a convicted felon, Senator Ted Stevens, and his supercorrupt sidekick, Don Young. I think that Stevens' conviction may have in fact helped the two of them, because Alaskan voters often see issues as the "Lower 48" against them and they may have felt that the "Washington elite," as their Governor likes to say, railroaded him. Also, the abhorrent McCarthyite Michele Bachmann was reelected to her seat in Minnesota. What are they thinking in that state, particularly if Coleman pulls out reelection in his still-undecided Senate race. I am happy, however, that Sasha and Malia Obama are getting a puppy! Also, the elections of Walt Minnick in Idaho, Alan Grayson in Florida, Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Dan Maffei in New York, and Larry Kissell in North Carolina, among others, are welcome news. And of course, YES WE DID! YES WE DID! And make sure you catch the replay of tonight's South Park, which apparently was partially recorded after the election last night. Those guys are still in form after 12 years on the air. UPDATE: A great post from Phil Nugent on "know-nothingness." Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party The End of An Historic NightSo, it's over and Barack Obama is President-Elect.Well, it's not quite over. Still some important Senate and House seats left, like in Minnesota and Alaska. So how did I do? Not that well. I predicted Obama would get 330 electoral votes, that the Dems would get 8 net seats in Senate, and 39 net in the House. Looks like 370, 6, and 20ish. But, a good night overall and we should enjoy this for a few days. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Tuesday, November 04, 2008Let Me Eat Cake!I'm celebrating by expanding my gut with some chocolate cake. How are you celebrating?Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Last Man Standing Goes DownCNN calls CT-05 for Jim Himes. Chris Shays, the last Republican Congressman in New England, is being retired.Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Texas for McCainStill no surprises. Let's see how TX-07 and TX-10 come in...Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Jersey Not Looking GoodZeitz, Stender, Adler, and Shulman all down. A friend at Shulman headquarters says he's about to concede. Very unexpected.Obama's coattails are nonexistent there. At least Lautenberg won. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics More CNN ProjectionsIowa to Obama, Utah to McCain. Kansas to McCain. No projections in Montana or Nevada. 206-89, Obama.Labels: 2008 Election, Politics MarylandObama up a lot, not surprising.Andy Harris is leading in MD-01 (grrr) and Roscoe Bartlett has won in MD-06. Oh well. UPDATE: Kratovil pulls even in MD-01. He'd better win. Harris is a total wingnut who beat moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrest in a bitter primary. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics John King..."Can't get him [McCain] to 270."Sad times at McCain's HQ. And Virginia is now 50-50. UPDATE: ![]() Labels: 2008 Election, Politics CBS CALLS OHIO FOR OBAMA!It's over! It's over! On CBS.In CNN's world, it's not. John King insists that there's still room for McCain to come back from his 13 point deficit. We'll see. UPDATE: MSNBC, Fox, and CNN call it too. That's it. It's over. They call New Mexico too, so assuming California goes Obama, he needs to win about two more states. UPDATE 2: But we lose OH-14... longshot, anyway. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Mitchie Hangs OnUnfortunate, as that leaves us with a cap of about 59 seats in the Senate, unless Ronnie Musgrove somehow wins in Mississippi, which I just don't see happening.Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Georgia... Oof.CNN just called it for McCain with 33% in and McCain up 23 points. Didn't see that coming. That'll mean Saxby Chambliss is safe in the Senate. Sucks.Labels: 2008 Election, Politics A Few More for McCainCBS calls Texas, Kansas, and North Dakota for McCain and now has Obama up 174-100.While I think McCain might win North Dakota, I think CBS will regret calling it this early. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Electoral Food!I just got about four pounds of tortellini delivered from a local restaurant to the hotel bar. By the way, I'm in Boston tonight.Labels: 2008 Election, Politics More Calls from CNNMichigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York for Obama, and Wyoming for McCain. 174-49, Obama. Almost over.Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Lunsford with a Chance?A little more than half in, Lunsford down by 2 in Kentucky. Can we take Mitchie McConnell out? I didn't think so, but it seems possible.Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Alabama goes McCainNo surprises or upsets yet.102-43, Obama, according to CNN. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Virginia Getting CloserVirginia has closed to a 5% McCain lead as the results come in...Unfortunately, looks like Judy Feder's going to lose to Frank Wolf in VA-10. That's a major disappointment after his staffers assaulted a couple of bloggers a few days ago. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics BreakTaking a break for a few minutes to find some food... hopefully we know more about Virginia when I get back!Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Three New Blue SenatorsKay Hagan (NC), Jean Shaheen (NH), and Mark Warner (VA).Nobody particularly great, but they're Dems. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics More FloridaWith more than 25% in, Obama's up 8 there.In the good news column, FL-08 and FL-24 are going our way. Bad news: FL-09, FL-10, FL-12, FL-13 and FL-18 are not. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics MSNBC Calls PA for ObamaAs well as NH, but no one else has...CBS called PA-18 for Tim Murphy. Rats. UPDATE: ABC called PA for Obama, too! FL or VA, and it's over... Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Results Roll InIL, MA, CT, NJ, MD, DE, DC, ME for Obama.TN, OK for McCain. 76-34, Obama, from NBC. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics South CarolinaCalled for McCain. No surprises yet. 16-3, McCain. No real word on Linda Ketner in SC-01 or Rob Miller in SC-02.Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Indiana at 25%And McCain up 1. Still looking lousy for Montagano, down 17 now. Also about 25% in there.Waiting on Florida and Virginia... Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Florida?There's no way it's going to hold up, but sex scandal ridden Democrat Tim Mahoney is holding his own in FL-16 with about 8% of precincts in in his district...Labels: 2008 Election, l, Politics More KentuckyMitch McConnell up by 4 for the Senate seat.But David Boswell up 4 for KY-02. That's one to watch. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics West Virginia Called for McCainNo surprise there. 13-3, McCain so far, and Obama up 49-46 in the popular vote.Labels: 2008 Election, Politics More IndianaIN-04 and IN-06, the two longshot races I've been following, have been called for Mike Pence and Steve Buyer, the Republicans. Mark Souder (R) is up 12 with about 10% of the results in in IN-03. My fingers are crossed for Mike Montagano there, but it doesn't look good right now.But, Obama is down 1 there. That's a really, really good sign. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Virginia Coming SoonThat's the biggie. Obama takes it, it's over. The networks have already called the Senate race there for Mark Warner.UPDATE: They've also called VA-11 for Gerry Connolly. Not a surprise, but that's one red seat gone blue. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics First EVsCBS has called Vermont for Obama and Kentucky for McCain.8-3, McCain. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, Politics With .00000000000000001% of the Vote In...McCain leads by about 32,000 to 28,000 (thanks, Lexi).It's over! :) UPDATE: In those #s, Obama is up two points in Indiana. (fingers crossed for him and Mike Montagano) Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, Politics Polls Close SoonIndiana and Kentucky close right about now.The best resource for poll closings can be found at Swing State Project. I'll be keeping an eye on as much as I can. Indiana's results can be found here as they come in. Kentucky here. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics My Predictions for TomorrowObama nabs 330 electoral votes, the Dems take 8 seats in the Senate (for a total of 59) and they net 39 seats in the House, giving them a total of 275.Should be enjoyable to watch. I plan to liveblog as much as I can this evening, starting around 6. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Vote or Die!An important public service announcement from Diddy:Labels: 2008 Election, Humor, Politics Saturday, November 01, 2008From the Mouths of Conservatives -- California Proposition 8Jesus flippin' Christ:(hat tip, Digby) Labels: 2008 Election, Mouths of Conservatives, Politics Friday, October 31, 2008From the Mouths of Conservatives: Equality is Not An American ValueEquality, which is the primary value of the left, is a European value, not an American value. Let me tell you that right now. I know this sounds offensive to half of my fellow Americans, because they have been Europeanized in their values. The French Revolution is not the American Revolution. The French Revolution said Liberty, Fraternity, Equality. The American Revolution said Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. We have lost touch with what our distinctive American values are. We have distinctive American values. … We have a better value system, and this is being protected by one of the two parties: the Republican party.-Dennis Prager Labels: 2008 Election, Mouths of Conservatives, Politics Tuesday, October 28, 2008Al the Shoe SalesmanWhat's with all the old TV stars reprising their roles for Obama? This one's not as funny as the Ron Howard one, but it makes its point well...Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Politics Saturday, October 25, 2008From the Mouths of Conservatives -- COMMUNIST! COMMUNIST! COMMUNIST!From a McCain rally yesterday in Denver:(Hat tip, Digby) Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, John McCain, Mouths of Conservatives, Politics, Republican Party True.This Obama ad has been floating on the web for a few days now, but I've been avoiding it because it sounded stupid to me. I finally watching it, and it's not. It might be the best ad anyone's done all year. Fantastic. Watch:Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Humor, Politics Pilin' on PalinI'm not feeling so wonderful this weekend, so I probably won't post that much. But Arielle, one of my six readers, sent me something I found amusing:Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party What's a Terrorist?Sarah Palin, who throws around the word a lot, doesn't seem to know... or at least she can't say that abortion clinic bombers are terrorists because she'll lose the only people who actually like her these days:Labels: 2008 Election, Politics, Republican Party Thursday, October 23, 2008Ron Howard Reaches Back for ObamaLabels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Humor, Politics The Story Behind the Crazy LadyFrom Talking Points Memo:Labels: 2008 Election, Politics, Republican Party RUDY FAILHere's a guy who knows the race is over:Rudy in 2012 Labels: 2008 Election, 2012 Election, Politics, Republican Party Wednesday, October 22, 2008Six Reasons the Race is Over... and why I'm concentrating on the Congressional Races...From Charlie Cook, summarized nicely by Electoral-Vote.com:
Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, John McCain, Politics, Republican Party David Sedaris on Undecided VotersPer Balloon Juice:To put [undecideds] in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. "Can I interest you in the chicken?" she asks. "Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?" To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Tuesday, October 21, 2008What Makes a Real American?Jon Stewart explained it to us last night... I really understood it when he laid it all out in an equation ("divided by the number of pieces of identification you need to buy a Sudafed"):UPDATE: For those of you who aren't real Americans, Jason Jones shows us a few: Labels: 2008 Election, Humor, Politics, Republican Party You Don't Have To Vote to Be CoolA couple weeks old, but I'm just catching up on Daily and Colbert since the move, and this was amazing.Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Humor, John McCain, Politics, Republican Party Palin on the Role of the VPWhy do they even let her speak?Aw, that's something that Piper would ask me, as a second grader, also. That's a great question, Brandon, and a Vice President has a really great job, because no only are they there to support the President agenda, they're like a team member, the team mate to that President. But also, they're in charge of the United States Senate, so if they want to they can really get in there with the Senators and make a lot of good policy changes that will make life better for Brandon and his family and his classroom. And it's a great job and I look forward to having that job. Except that's not the job... as a fan of Ralph Wiggum, I love the Kos headline: "Me fail civics? That's unpossible!" Labels: 2008 Election, Republican Party Monday, October 20, 2008From the Mouths of Conservatives -- "The Simpson Effect"Competely, blatantly stolen from Atrios:I believe in this election we will NOT see "The Bradley Effect". Instead, we will see what I call "The Simpson Effect", meaning, Obama will get elected simply because he is BLACK, in spite of the facts that he is "guilty" of being a Socialist, a liar, guilty of being in the MIDDLE of the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae debaucle that was responsible for the financial crisis, guilty taking in over $200,000 in illegal foreign donations, helping to campaign for and continuing a friendship with Prime Minister Raila Odinga who muscled his way into his position by encouraging his followers to commit mass genocide against the oppostion party, guilty of being pals with terrorists criminals, America haters and like Ayers , Rezco, Khalidi, Odinga, guilty of manipulating ACORN and encouraging voter fraud, guilty of running for President of the US when his Indonesion citizenship disqualifies him, GUILTY, GUILTY- but nobody cares because he is BLACK- just like OJ Simpson. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Mouths of Conservatives The Great Schlep In ActionFrom Ben Harris at JTA:Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Jewish, John McCain, Judaism, Politics, Republican Party Sunday, October 19, 2008What's the Best We Can Do in the House? (October 19th Edition)(Cross-posted at Daily Kos)Here's the latest update of all of the Republican seats in Congress that the Dems currently have a chance to take. I've now used the ratings from sites in making this evaluation: The Cook Political Report (Cook), Electoral-Vote.com (EV), RealClearPolitics (RCP), Swing State Project (SSP), The Rothenberg Political Report (Rothenberg), and Congressional Quarterly (CQ); as well as the DCCC's Red-to-Blue, Emerging Races, and Races to Watch lists. Currently, there are 86 Republican seats in play. If you have any others, please let me know in the comments (with links showing fundraising and/or polling numbers). In the 110th Congress (2007-2008), the Dems hold 236 seats and the Republicans 199. The Dems are the majority in 27 of the states' delegations, the Reps 21, and 2 delegations are tied. In our best case scenario, the Democrats would have the majority in 40 states, the Republicans 7, with three ties (Idaho, Kansas, and Kentucky). Here are the seats that at least one of those sites (or another source specified) rated as Dem pickup possibilities (New additions are signified with an asterisk): Alabama: 7 districts, 5 Republican, 2 in play Best Case Scenario: 4 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority AL-02 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) AL-03* (DCCC, SSP, CQ) Alaska: 1 district, 1 Republican, 1 in play Best Case Scenario: 1 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority AK-AL (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) Arizona: 8 districts, 4 Republican, 2 in play Best Case Scenario: 6 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority AZ-01 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) AZ-03 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) Arkansas: 4 districts, 1 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 1 Rep, Dem Majority California: 53 districts, 19 Republican, 7 in play Best Case Scenario: 41 Dems, 12 Reps, Dem Majority CA-03* (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ) CA-04 (Cook, EV, RCP, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) CA-26* (DCCC, SSP, CQ) CA-45* (DCCC) CA-46* (Cook, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) CA-50* (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ) CA-52* (DCCC) Colorado: 7 districts, 3 Republican, 1 in play Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority CO-04 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) Connecticut: 5 districts, 1 Republican, 1 in play Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority CT-04 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) Delaware: 1 district, 1 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 0 Dems, 1 Rep, Rep Majority Florida: 25 districts, 16 currently Republican, 10 in play Best Case Scenario: 19 Dems, 6 Reps, Dem Majority FL-08 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) FL-09* (DCCC) FL-10* (SSP) FL-12* (SSP) FL-13 (Cook, EV, DCCC, Rothenberg) FL-15 (EV, SSP, CQ) FL-18* (DCCC, SSP) FL-21 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) FL-24 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) FL-25 (RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) Georgia: 13 districts, 7 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 6 Dems, 7 Reps, Rep Majority Hawaii: 2 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority Idaho: 2 districts, 2 Republican, 1 in play Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 1 Rep, Tie ID-01 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) Illinois: 19 districts, 8 Republican, 5 in play Best Case Scenario: 16 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority IL-06 (Cook, DCCC, CQ, Rothenberg) IL-10 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) IL-11 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) IL-13* (DCCC, SSP, CQ) IL-18* (DCCC, CQ) Indiana: 9 districts, 4 Republican, 2 in play Best Case Scenario: 7 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority IN-03 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ) IN-04* (SSP) Iowa: 5 districts, 2 Republican, 2 in play Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority IA-04 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ) IA-05 (DCCC, SSP) Kansas: 4 districts, 2 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 2 Reps, Tie Kentucky: 6 districts, 4 Republican, 1 in play Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 3 Reps, Tie KY-02 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) Louisiana: 7 districts, 4 Republican, 3 in play Best Case Scenario: 6 Dems, 1 Rep, Dem Majority LA-01* (DCCC, SSP, CQ) LA-04 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, CQ, Rothenberg) LA-07* (DCCC, SSP, CQ) Maine: 2 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority Maryland: 8 districts, 2 Republican, 2 in play Best Case Scenario: 8 Dems, 0 Rep, Dem Majority MD-01 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) MD-06* (SSP) Massachusetts: 10 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 10 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority Michigan: 15 districts, 9 Republican, 2 in play Best Case Scenario: 8 Dems, 7 Reps, Dem Majority MI-07 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) MI-09 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) Minnesota: 8 districts, 3 Republican, 3 in play Best Case Scenario: 8 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority MN-02 (Cook, DCCC, CQ) MN-03 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) MN-06 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) Mississippi: 4 districts, 1 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 1 Rep, Dem Majority Missouri: 9 districts, 5 Republican, 2 in play Best Case Scenario: 6 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority MO-06 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) MO-09 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) Montana: 1 district, 1 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 0 Dems, 1 Rep, Rep Majority Nebraska: 3 districts, 3 Republican, 1 in play Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 2 Reps, Rep Majority NE-02 (Cook, DCCC, CQ, Rothenberg) Nevada: 3 districts, 2 Republican, 2 in play Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 0 Rep2, Dem Majority NV-02 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ) NV-03 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) New Hampshire: 2 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 0 Rep, Dem Majority New Jersey: 13 districts, 6 Republican, 4 in play Best Case Scenario: 11 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority NJ-03 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) NJ-04* (DCCC) NJ-05 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ) NJ-07 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) New Mexico: 3 districts, 2 Republican, 2 in play Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority NM-01 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) NM-02 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) New York: 29 districts, 6 Republican, 4 in play Best Case Scenario: 27 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority NY-13 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) NY-25 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) NY-26 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) NY-29 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) North Carolina: 13 districts, 6 Republican, 3 in play Best Case Scenario: 10 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority NC-05 (SSP) NC-08 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ) NC-10 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ) North Dakota: 1 district, 0 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 1 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority Ohio: 18 districts, 11 Republican, 7 in play Best Case Scenario: 14 Dems, 4 Reps, Dem Majority OH-01 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) OH-02 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) OH-07 (Cook, DCCC, CQ) OH-08* (SSP) OH-14* (SSP, CQ) OH-15 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) OH-16 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) Oklahoma: 5 districts, 4 Republican, 1 in play Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 3 Reps, Rep Majority OK-01 (DCCC) Oregon: 5 districts, 1 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 4 Dems, 1 Rep, Dem Majority Pennsylvania: 19 districts, 8 Republican, 4 in play Best Case Scenario: 15 Dems, 4 Reps, Dem Majority PA-03 (Cook, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) PA-06 (Cook, EV, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) PA-15 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ) PA-18 (DCCC, SSP, CQ) Rhode Island: 2 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 2 Dems, 0 Reps, Rep Majority South Carolina: 6 districts, 4 Republican, 2 in play Best Case Scenario: 4 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority SC-01* (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ) SC-02* (DCCC, SSP, CQ) South Dakota: 1 districts, 0 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 0 Reps, Dem Majority Tennessee: 9 districts, 4 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 4 Reps, Dem Majority Texas: 32 districts, 19 Republican, 2 in play Best Case Scenario: 15 Dems, 17 Reps, Rep Majority TX-07 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ) TX-10 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ) Utah: 3 districts, 2 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 2 Reps, Rep Majority Vermont: 1 district, 0 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 1 Dem, 0 Reps, Dem Majority Virginia: 11 districts, 8 Republican, 4 in play Best Case Scenario: 7 Dems, 4 Reps, Dem Majority VA-02 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) VA-05 (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ) VA-10* (DCCC, SSP, CQ) VA-11 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) Washington: 9 districts, 3 Republican, 1 in play Best Case Scenario: 7 Dems, 2 Reps, Dem Majority WA-08 (Cook, EV, RCP, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) West Virginia: 3 districts, 1 Republican, 1 in play Best Case Scenario: 3 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority WV-02* (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) Wisconsin: 8 district, 3 Republican, 0 in play Best Case Scenario: 5 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority Wyoming: 1 district, 1 Republican, 1 in play Best Case Scenario: 1 Dems, 0 Reps, Dem Majority WY-AL (Cook, DCCC, SSP, CQ, Rothenberg) Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party, The Best We Can Do Roll With It, Johnny...Awesome. (hat tip, Howie) Labels: 2008 Election, John McCain, Politics, Republican Party Some Recommended Reading MaterialI've been working a bit today on tomorrow's update of the my list of Congressional races in play. One of the blogs I've been consulting a bit is Down With Tyranny!.I can't recommend it more. If you're feeling politically wonky and a bit bored, you can get lost in it. Good stuff. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Friday, October 17, 2008Races, Races, Races...I'm planning on updating my list of Congressional seats that the Dems could possibly get their hands on in November on Sunday. There's going to be a lot to add, looking at the Cook Report's latest update. 25 updated races, all in favor of the Dems (though I'm sure Tim Mahoney's race in Florida will be updated the other way fairly soon).In the meantime, for the real nerds, here's Swing State Project's latest update on the state of the state legislature races around the country. Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party From the Mouths of Conservatives -- Obama = LeninBarack Obama as a murderous Communist dictator is a common theme among wingnut Republicans, and the drumbeat keeps getting stronger. Here's a quote from a rightie on Silicon Investor (yes, I spend too much time there):Eventually [Obama] or his successor will make laws [business leaders] cannot avoid breaking, put them in jail, kill them, and take over the companies. Obama's people, ACORN and Democrats will then be the super rich. They really believe this stuff... Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Mouths of Conservatives, Politics, Republican Party Thursday, October 16, 2008A Reverse Bradley Effect?For the politically uninitiated, the Bradley Effect is named for Tom Bradley, the former mayor of Los Angeles who ran for governor of California in 1982 and lost even though he was winning significantly a few days before the election. Since then political conventional wisdom would have it that going into an election, a black candidate needs to have a fairly large lead in the polls to compensate for the number of people who tell pollsters they will vote for the black candidate to avoid admitting that they will not vote for a black candidate.Politico has some numbers and data that show that the "Bradley Effect" may have been simple polling error, and that Bradley's opponent actually did close the gap in the days before the election. Jeff, a business associate of mine in my Albany office, floated an interesting idea yesterday. I'm not sure that I agree with it, but the essence of it is that there might be a "Reverse Bradley Effect," where people don't want to admit they MIGHT vote for a black candidate but vote for Obama because they feel like it's in their economic self-interest. Some interesting evidence from Ben Smith at Politico, about a focus group's reaction to a McCain ad: Reagan Dems and Independents. Call them blue-collar plus. Slightly more Target than Walmart. Yes, the spot worked. Yes, they believed the charges against Obama. Yes, they actually think he's too liberal, consorts with bad people and WON'T BE A GOOD PRESIDENT...but they STILL don't give a f***. They said right out, "He won't do anything better than McCain" but they're STILL voting for Obama. The two most unreal moments of my professional life of watching focus groups: 54 year-old white male, voted Kerry '04, Bush '00, Dole '96, hunter, NASCAR fan...hard for Obama said: "I'm gonna hate him the minute I vote for him. He's gonna be a bad president. But I won't ever vote for another god-damn Republican. I want the government to take over all of Wall Street and bankers and the car companies and Wal-Mart run this county like we used to when Reagan was President." The next was a woman, late 50s, Democrat but strongly pro-life. Loved B. and H. Clinton, loved Bush in 2000. "Well, I don't know much about this terrorist group Barack used to be in with that Weather guy but I'm sick of paying for health insurance at work and that's why I'm supporting Barack."> Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, John McCain, Politics, Republican Party Blood for Oil?Did anyone else notice that while talking about Biden not being qualified because he voted against the first Gulf War, McCain said that we went to war to keep our oil supply from being disrupted? (thanks to Steve for the link)He voted against the first Gulf War. He voted against it and, obviously, we had to take Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait or it would've threatened the Middle Eastern world [oil] supply. Also, after the debate, CBS got Joe the Plumber on the phone and: 1. He was asked about if Obama's $250,000 tax bracket would affect him, and he said, something to the effect of, "No, but it's a slippery slope -- if he decides now that $250,000 is rich, next he'll decide that $100,000 is rich, and then who knows?" No mention of employees or an actual business. 2. He compared Obama to Sammy Davis, Jr. Oof. One hell of a campaign surrogate. UPDATE: Looks like Joe isn't even registered to vote. LATER UPDATE: He actually is registered to vote, and a Republican. Not only that, but he's a staunch right-winger who is against Social Security... and aside from that, he's a relative of Charles Keating! And a schmuck. But he's Neil Cavuto's "kinda plumber...": EVEN LATER UPDATE: It's been pointed out that there's no solid evidence on the Keating relation yet... at least for sure that Joe and Robert Wurzelbacher are related (Robert Wurzelbacher is, for sure, Keating's son-in-law). But I'll keep you posted. Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Economy, Foreign Policy, John McCain, Politics, Republican Party Quick Debate ReactionI'm heading to Albany for a couple of days early tomorrow, but before I hit the sack, I just want to echo what Nate Silver said:"Congratulations, President Obama." A twenty-six second summary of how this one went (watch McCain's face): Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, John McCain, Politics, Republican Party Wednesday, October 15, 2008Palinites Gone WildFrom a Palin rally in Ohio:Boy, does this woman attract the kooks... (hat tip, okayokayokay) Labels: 2008 Election, Politics, Republican Party Tuesday, October 14, 2008Like Rats...(hat tip, MyDD) LATE UPDATE: A list of the rats... (thanks, Ted) Labels: 2008 Election, John McCain, Politics, Republican Party Monday, October 13, 2008What's the Best We Can Do? (October 13th Edition)(Cross posted at Daily Kos)(This is truly the wonkiest thing I've ever posted to this site) Markos mentioned today that we are working toward a 100 seat Democratic majority in the House. This morning, I was talking to a friend, and wondered aloud if we could reach a 2/3 majority, which would be 290 seats (to 145 Republican seats). We'd need to gain 54 to do that. Trying to gauge the possibilities, I spent a good portion of the day looking over the ratings on Cook, Real Clear Politics, and Electoral-Vote.com, to get a baseline of the Republican seats that are in play. Being that I'm looking at only the most optimistic scenario, I ignored all seats that are currently Dem and included as "in play" any Republican seats that are rated anything less than "Safe/Solid Republican." It was a good feeling to see Microsoft Excel auto-fill "Solid Democratic" much more often than "Solid Republican." Anyway, here are the seats that at least one of those sites rated as Dem pickup possibilities: Alabama AL-02 (Cook, EV, RCP) Alaska AK-AL (Cook, EV, RCP) Arizona AZ-01 (Cook, EV, RCP) AZ-03 (Cook, RCP) California CA-04 (Cook, EV, RCP) Colorado CO-04 (Cook, EV, RCP) Connecticut CT-04 (Cook, EV, RCP) Florida FL-08 (Cook, RCP) FL-13 (Cook, EV) FL-15 (EV) FL-21 (Cook, EV, RCP) FL-24 (Cook, EV, RCP) FL-25 (RCP) Idaho ID-01 (Cook, RCP) Illinois IL-06 (Cook) IL-10 (Cook, EV, RCP) IL-11 (Cook, EV, RCP) Indiana IN-03 (Cook) Iowa IA-04 (Cook) Kentucky KY-02 (Cook) Louisiana LA-04 (Cook, RCP) Maryland MD-01 (Cook, RCP) Michigan MI-07 (Cook, RCP) MI-09 (Cook, RCP) Minnesota MN-02 (Cook) MN-03 (Cook, EV, RCP) MN-06 (Cook) Missouri MO-06 (Cook, EV, RCP) MN-09 (Cook, RCP) Nebraska NE-02 (Cook) Nevada NV-02 (Cook) NV-03 (Cook, EV, RCP) New Jersey NJ-03 (Cook, EV, RCP) NJ-05 (Cook) NJ-07 (Cook, EV, RCP) New Mexico NM-01 (Cook, RCP) NM-02 (Cook, RCP) New York NY-13 (Cook, EV, RCP) NY-25 (Cook, EV, RCP) NY-26 (Cook, EV, RCP) NY-29 (Cook, EV, RCP) North Carolina NC-08 (Cook, EV, RCP) NC-10 (Cook) Ohio OH-01 (Cook, EV, RCP) OH-02 (Cook, EV, RCP) OH-07 (Cook) OH-15 (Cook, EV, RCP) OH-16 (Cook, EV, RCP) Pennsylvania PA-03 (Cook, RCP) PA-06 (Cook, EV) PA-15 (Cook) Texas TX-07 (Cook) TX-10 (Cook) Virginia VA-02 (Cook) VA-05 (Cook) VA-11 (Cook, EV, RCP) Washington WA-08 (Cook, EV, RCP) Wyoming WY-AL (Cook) Of note, aside from the last Republican seat in New England (CT-04) being in serious jeopardy, every Republican seat in Minnesota and Nevada are possible, and we can also grab four of the six seats that the Republicans still hold in New York. Real opportunities to step on their necks. All in all, 58 states in play, just according to those sites. I know that there are others that aren't being picked up -- for instance, CA-03 and possibly MD-06. I'll include those in a future edition, with links to polls and such. So, if everything moves in our favor, we can get that 2/3rds. But how many more? What's the BEST we can do? That's where I need your help. Between now and the next edition, if you have other races that should be included in this list, please post them in the comments along with links to relevant polls or fundraising numbers showing that the race really is in play. I for one, won't be happy until we have every last Republican seat in the House and Senate. What can I say -- I'm a dreamer! Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party, The Best We Can Do Sunday, October 12, 2008The BEST Obama Impression I've Seen(hat tip, D-Day) Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Humor, Politics Wednesday, October 08, 2008My Friends, My Friends...I don't have a lot to say about the debate tonight, other than I think Obama won by a bit (the poll or two I've seen seem to indicate he won by a lot more). McCain's last chance to make this a contest is at next week's debate, but I think this one's over. More tomorrow.Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, John McCain, Politics, Republican Party Saturday, October 04, 2008Joe Six-Who?It hit me last night -- Isn't it insulting and patronizing that someone like Sarah Palin would use a term like "Joe Six-Pack" to describe the "average American?" I mean, who the hell is Joe Six-Pack, and what makes him so average? What does it say about the average American if the accessory attributed to him is a six-pack of beer? How the heck do Republicans think they can get away with (and sometimes do get away with) getting people to vote against their economic interests by calling them condescending names? Isn't that the essence of "elitist" snobbery?I woke up this morning to an AP writer asking basically the same questions: Also, on the same topic, what Digby said. UPDATE: Matthew Yglesias on Palin as "Meta-Candidate." Labels: 2008 Election, Politics, Republican Party The Ground GameWhen it comes to elections, The term "ground game" refers to the campaign activities of people on the ground -- people making phone calls, registering voters, staffing field offices, etc...The Republicans' ground game is usually a force to be reckoned with, and the Democrats' has often been so-so. Thanks to people like Howard Dean and Barack Obama, the Democrats' ground game is incredibly strong. It's been that way for Obama's whole campaign. He's been opening offices in every state, many in which Democrats don't normally compete, like Indiana. But I'd been under the assumption that the Republicans' still were doing pretty well on the ground. Yesterday, Sean Quinn of the amazing FiveThirtyEight.com dropped a bomb on that assumption: Something interesting is happening with John McCain's campaign. Up until now, we've had no trouble gaining access to field offices and volunteers. Here in St. Louis, we were told by Tina Hervey, Missouri Republican State Party Press Secretary, that she had never heard of FiveThirtyEight, and while they trusted Politico, we were people who they had to decide whether we "shouldn't or don't need to be talking to." (McCain's UPDATE: For an example of how good Obama's ground game is, check this out. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, John McCain, Politics, Republican Party Friday, October 03, 2008LucyFrom Molly Ivors at Eschaton (usually of Whiskey Fire):Am I the only one who thought Palin was channeling Lucy Van Pelt last night? The difference, of course, is that Sarah would shoot Snoopy. Poor dog :( Labels: 2008 Election, Politics, Republican Party Thursday, October 02, 2008VP Debate Liveblog #11Ifill: Closing statements, please...Peanut gallery in the bar: "We've totally lost interest and we're not going to let you hear the end of this. Sorry!" All in all, this debate got us exactly nowhere, except we didn't get the Palin gaffe. So, boring. Very boring. Bob Schieffer thought Biden was very good and Palin was just OK. This concludes this liveblog... Next one in another two years! I'll try to do the election, but no promises. Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party VP Debate Liveblog #10Ifill: Time to turn this into a job interview. Your biggest weakness, please?Palin: Got none. I'm perfect, like America. So is John McCain. Biden: I'm too passionate! And I ain't changing. Except for when it comes to change. I LOVE to change things. Sarah, I'll one-up your live family with my dead family! McSame! McSame! McSame! (Lexi: That was kind of hardcore.) Palin: Maverick! Maverick! (Take two more shots) (Lexi: "Cripes, if I hear the word "maverick" one more time..."). The Republican party is a really diverse bunch of white people. McCain's your man for change... Biden: He's no maverick! He's the same! How many times do I have to say it? Ifill: Blah blah change blah Biden: Blah blah blah change blah change Roe v. Wade blah Palin: I don't compromise -- other people compromise with me and then I compromise with them. Ifill: How would you foster bipartisanship? Biden: By not questioning others' motivations. Change. (Another shot) Palin: Some talking points about creating jobs, lowering taxes, and energy independence. Democrats want to increase your taxes! Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party VP Debate Liveblog #9Ifill: Wait, I thought you guys didn't want to be VP!Palin: I was joking! And so was Biden, but I was funnier. Biden: I think this question is stupid, so I'm going to talk about education. Well, on second thought, I have a good answer, so what the heck? Obama's gonna listen to me. Palin: (Lexi: "Wait, what?") Biden: The VP is kinda like the President's second wife, unless his name is Cheney, then he's his "top." Next post! Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party VP Debate Liveblog #8Ifill: What would you do if you became king?Biden: I'd have an awesome foreign policy -- it's be nothing like Bush's. McCain: Pretty much the same stuff as McCain, 'cept I'd add a little twist of Wasila for flavor. Government and taxes suck. Biden: Once again, McSame! Everybody around me: I'm loud and annoying and I don't care what they're saying anymore, so I don't care if you can hear the debate either. Biden: Change we can believe in... Palin: "Say it ain't so, Joe!" "Your wife, God bless her...." Two girls: "Doggone it!" Woman at the table: "I'm so proud of her." Palin: Vague stuff about education being important. Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party VP Debate Liveblog #7Ifill: What about interventionism?Biden: Genocide is bad. Let's stop it. Palin: I'm an outsider. You're a flip-flopper. Which one do Americans prefer? I really paid attention to politics before I got the nomination... really! Alaska is widely known as a leader against genocide. Just not widely enough to reach the elitists in the "lower 48." Biden: I didn't flip-flop! I didn't really want this war. But Satan, I mean, Cheney, did, and McCain's his friend. Palin: Talk to the hand. The media's gonna get you, you liar. Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party VP Debate Liveblog #6Biden: McSame!Woman at the table: "She looks mischievious." Ifill: Are nuclear weapons bad? Palin: I don't know, but I'm cool with nukeular ones, but only in the hands of white people... those brown people and yellow people can't handle them. We, being the white people, are fighting terrorism and building schools! Biden: General Not-Petraeus in Afghanistan said keep your surgey hands off of my territory! Something about the cost of Iraq vs. Afghanistan. McCain digs nukes. Palin: It's my party, and I'll surge if I want to! Biden: I have two favorite Republicans, and they're not surgemeisters. Next post! Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party VP Debate Liveblog #5Ifill: Iraq?Palin: The search worked. You didn't believe the mighty Petraeus or St. John, but it did. And we'll get out of their someday. We have a plan! Trust us! Obama didn't vote to fund the troops. Slips the word "Shia" in to sound smart. Biden: I didn't hear a plan. And McCain and Obama voted against the same bill. Gotta have a timeline to get out; We can't spend our own money to help the people we bombed the ever-loving-fuck out of... they have to use their own. But we'll end the end the war. Palin: Surrender monkey! French frog! The surge worked, dammit! Why can't Obama admit it? Dropping Iraqi names incorrectly from an index card... Starts to get pissed about Obama trying to take money from the troops. Biden: McCain really did vote against the same goddamn bill! McCain really doesn't know squat about the war or anything else. Obama called it all correctly (really pushing it). Ifill: What's worse, nuclear Iran or rogue Pakistan? Biden: Both so scary (wets himself a little)! But Pakistan's more scary -- they have nukes, but Iran doesn't. McCain weakens us by keeping us in Iraq instead of Pakistan. We need to build democracy in Pakistan (like we did in Iraq?). No, not like in Iraq. We're really going to help them. And we're gonna get that guy bin Laden. Palin: Petraeus and the leader of Al-Qaida say we should stay in Iraq, so we're gonna stay. I love Israel (Meredith: "oh she went there")! Pakistan, whatever. Iran is so scary! It's gonna destroy Israel! Castro's scary, too, but Obama loves him and all the other bad guys. Nukeular, nukeular, nukeular. They hate our gosh-darned freedom! Biden: Obama does NOT love bad guys. If he loves bad guys, so do five secretaries of state and some Republicans! And McCain's hatred for Spain falls mainly on the plain! Ifill: Two-state solution? Palin: Yes! And Rice is working on it, as will we. Need I remind you I love Israel? If you don't want to make sexy time with Israel, you want another Holocaust. (Meredith: "Wow. She's reading AIPAC talking points." Biden: I love Israel the mostest! I have a boner for it right now! McCain would need Viagra to do it with Israel. Palin: We can have a threesome with Israel! Yeah, the administration has screwed up, but it's not really anyone's fault. MAVERICK HO! Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party VP Debate Liveblog #4Ifill: Do you support benefits for same-sex couples?Biden: Yes. It's fair and called for in the Constitution (really? I think I could run a search for "gay" or "heterosexual" on the text of the Constitution and not turn up anything). Palin: No, but I can hedge a little while choking back spittle. I don't support gay marriage. It's icky. Ifill: Do you support gay marriage? Biden: No. Neither does Obama. (Why do we live in a country of troglodytes?) Next post! Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party VP Debate Liveblog #3Ifill: Would you have supported the bankruptcy bill of 2005? McCain did (Biden CERTAINLY did, and I can't excuse him).Palin: Yes. Biden: Obama and I disagreed on that... changes subject to subprime mortgages... brings it back saying that Obama will do other things to help people in foreclosure. McCain wouldn't. Palin: Not true. But I don't have to say why. I want to talk about energy! Drill, baby, drill! (She's really working up a head of steam. Ifill: OK< let's talk about energy. Climate change? Palin: Alaska feels climate change more than anyone (Meredith: "alaska knows about climate change more so than say louisiana") . But it's not man's fault. I don't want to talk about the causes (Lexi: "she's losin' it.") Other countries don't care about global warming, so why should we? (Adrien: "you need to include biden laughing at her in every shot") Biden: Of course it's man-made. We're running out of oil and we're so dependent on it. McCain doesn't care about alternative energy. Obama's for clean coal and safe nuclear energy (all tilting at windmills -- gotta call Biden out on that). We've gotta drill, too. Palin: "Drill, baby, drill!." Joe, if you don't want to drill, you hate America! Biden doesn't really support clean coal. Biden: I do too! Next post! Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party VP Debate Liveblog #2Palin: I cut taxes. I don't have to answer your stupid questions.Ifill: It's been said McCain's health insurance plan will raise taxes on people and cut 5 million from health insurance rolls. Biden: Obama will not raise taxes on anyone making less than $250,000. McCain will cut taxes for the wealthy. Tax breaks need to go to the middle class. Palin: You're a Commie! You're going to tax small businesses. Todd and I are middle class! Remember I have a family! Ifill: Can you talk about McCain's health care plan? Palin: Yes, we'll give a tax credit (but it's still going to cost people more money and increase risk)... Government can't run healthcare! We Republicans have shown we can't run anything! Biden: It's not "income redistribution" it's "fairness." Picks up on the real costs of McCain's healthcare plan. Very well done, Joe. It's the "ultimate bridge to nowhere" (huh?). Ifill: What can't we pay for because the economy's doing badly? Biden: Some of our foreign activity.... but we can't pull back on providing healthcare or creating alternative energy. We need to eliminate wasteful spending, like offshore tax avoidance, which is "unpatriotic" (good point). Palin: McCain doesn't ever tell different things to different groups. I took on oil companies. Woman behind me: "Bless their hearts". Palin: Obama voted for an energy plan that gave tax breaks to oil companies. Ifill: Nothing to take off the table? Palin: Nothing. I know my talking points. Biden: Obama voted for that bill because of its inclusion of funding for alternative energy. McCain's the one that wants to cut taxes for oil companies! Next post! Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Republican Party VP Debate Liveblog #1It's about to begin. I'm in the hotel lobby at the Albany Marriott (I'll explain later). I've got a peanut gallery of people around me, and if they say anything good, I'll let you know :)It's time to start.... Gwen Ifill is moderating. The candidates come out -- Palin: "Hey, can I call you Joe?" Weird. Question about the bailout. Biden: Attacks Bush administration about excess and deregulation, letting Wall Street run wild. Obama has four criteria for his rescue plan -- they involve oversight, restrictions of executives making money from the bailout, etc... (I personally agree with all of them, but I don't think that Obama's really sticking to that). Woman here: "Put some lipstick on!" Palin: Something about a soccer game. People are afraid. McCain represents reform and tried to prevent this two years ago with bipartisan efforts, but no one listened to him. He suspended his campaign to deal with this (he didn't, really, but that was suprisingly coherent). Biden: Talks about McCain's "fundamentals of the economy are strong." John McCain flip-flops. Palin: HE WAS TALKING ABOUT THE WORKFORCE! (total, utter crap). I'm a reformer and a maverick, and we put partisan politics aside. Obama's a partisan. McCain's a maverick! Waiter: "Who's the comedian on Saturday Night Live?" Ifill: Who was at fault for the subprime meltdown? Palin: "Darned right, it was the predator lenders." Hockey moms and Joe Six Packs, blah blah. People can learn lessons from this and not use debt in the future. Woman behind me: "Pretty pathetic." Biden: Obama warned two years ago about this. John called for more and more deregulation (Very, very true). It's not people's faults they're in debt. They can't even afford to fill their tanks. Palin: Biden loves taxes. Obama loves taxes. Taxes kill jobs. Biden: Palin's a liar. And she's not answering questions... Next post! Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party What to Watch for in Tonight's DebateLet's not kid ourselves.... pretty much no one is watching the debate for Biden. Republicans are watching it to cheer for her, and Democrats are hoping for a train wreck. I happen to think they're going to get that train wreck...Since Palin's initial rather inflammatory but compelling introduction to the country at the Republican Convention, she's shown herself to be not only a dud, but incredibly ignorant. She can't name a Supreme Court case other than Roe V. Wade, she can't name a single newspaper she reads... It's not terribly surprising; she's a GOPACer. For those not in the know, GOPAC is an incubator for conservative politicians, and the baby of Newt Gingrich (remember him?). Kagro X on Daily Kos provides some good background: Back in the heyday of GOPAC, when it was Newt Gingrich's operation, one of the chief functions of the organization was to equip the Republican "farm team" with the kind of rhetoric Newt was well-known for. Attention grabbing, bombastic, and most importantly, focus-group tested for resonance. Right down to the molecular level. They actually used to distribute a list of words they wanted you to use to describe Republicans and Republican policies, and those they wanted used to describe Democrats and Democratic policies. For most Republicans, that rudimentary training is usually enough to get you through most situations. They rarely, if ever, face the national press corps for a full and wide-ranging examination of the breadth of their policy positions, instead perhaps occasionally doing national interviews on specific topics of expertise. Only the top leaders from each party tend to find themselves in a position like Palin will be facing on Thursday, and even then only for perhaps ten minutes at a time. It's highly unusual for such an untested politician to find themselves in this bright a spotlight, and it's only due to the fact that a vice presidential nominee can literally be picked out of the blue and thrust into the spotlight with no special prerequisites that this can even happen. Ordinarily, people choose their running mates with, you know, a little care and forethought. And that usually produces a selection who's actually ready for the job. Not this time. This time, we're being given a chance to watch one of the GOPAC spawn in the larval stage, not yet fully developed, and we'll have a chance to see the limitations of trying to teach someone to talk and argue like Newt Gingrich before they're ready. . . . She hasn't helped herself by executing her training poorly of late, but there's only so much you can do once your questioners realize that you have only one set play for when you get in trouble: 1) repeat back some of the words in the question to establish that you're "answering" it; 2) parry by steering the frame of your answer toward a talking point that bears some relation to the subect of the question; 3) spray some transitional buzzwords that help you segue from what you were asked to what you have prepared to say, and; 4) deliver the focus group-tested answer you originally planned, even if it's kind of a non-sequitur. From another Kagro X post, he provides a story from a former opponent of hers when she ran for governor of Alaska in 2006: On April 18, 2006, Palin and I sat together in a hotel coffee shop comparing campaign trail notes. As we talked about the debates, Palin made a comment that highlights the phenomenon that Biden is up against. "Andrew, I watch you at these debates with no notes, no papers, and yet when asked questions, you spout off facts, figures, and policies, and I'm amazed. But then I look out into the audience and I ask myself, 'Does any of this really matter?' " Palin said. Pretty much tells you all you need to know about her attitude towards politics and governance. The debate is set up so that the candidates can't question each other, which will probably help keep Palin on her game. But I think we'll still get some unprecedented screwups (fingers crossed). If we don't, it's likely to be a boring debate. Reading this report from the Onion, though, I do expect that Palin will be very prepared on foreign policy. Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Politics, Republican Party VP Debate Liveblog TonightHaven't done a liveblog in a while; what the heck? It should be quite the spectacle tonight... See you at 9!Labels: 2008 Election, Politics Thursday, September 25, 2008A New LowWorse than Bush. How do these guys do it? Mencken, eat your heart out. Labels: 2008 Election, Politics, Republican Party, Sarah Palin Friday, August 29, 2008High Technology Political CommunicationsI didn't watch much of the Democratic Convention, because, ironically enough, I was too busy trying to keep up with what the political blogs had to say about it. I do have to say, though, that I think Biden was a pretty good choice for VP; if nothing else, he'll make a great hatchet man for Obama.When Obama announced his selection for VP, he made history by doing so to his supporters through text message. I hear that along the same lines, McCain will be making his announcement by carrier pigeon. Stay tuned! UPDATE: It looks like I missed one doozy of an acceptance speech by Obama. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, John McCain, Republican Party Monday, August 25, 2008Friday, August 08, 2008Dammit, John...The news about John Edwards is extremely disappointing... I'm suddenly relieved he's not our candidate this year.I don't have a lot to say about it, but I'll link you to some people who do. Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, John Edwards Tuesday, August 05, 2008I Suddenly Have a Little Respect for Paris HiltonSee more funny videos at Funny or Die Labels: 2008 Election, Humor; John McCain; Barack Obama, Politics Saturday, July 12, 2008Am I the Only One Not Surprised?Just got back after a month of self-imposed hiatus from politics after Hillary dropped out of the race. Obama appears to have tacked to the center since then; for example on the surveillance legislation and faith-based initiatives.All of the long-time Obamaniacs seem to be surprised by this (I'm not one of them, remember)... I'm not. I've always been a little uncomfortable with him (and Hillary) because he's just not really a liberal. Remember his 2004 keynote speech at the DNC? We liberals are not going to love him as President, but after 8 years of Bush and faced with 4 more in McCain, Obama's still pretty damn appetizing... Labels: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Politics, Republican Party Sunday, June 08, 2008Taking a BreakNow that we have our nominees, I'm going to take a month off from politics online and in real life to get a bit of a breather. I'm hoping that by the time I start following again, Obama is up 10 points.Fingers crossed... Labels: 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Personal, Politics, Republican Party Sunday, June 01, 2008A Typical Hillary Supporter?(hat tip Balloon Juice) Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Primaries, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Politics Sunday, May 11, 2008Hillary's Case in Five MinutesAmy Poehler does an awful Hillary Clinton (not surprising as Saturday Night Live has been terrible for going on fifteen years), but she manages to sum up Clinton's arguments pretty succinctly. By the way I'm down in DC for the next couple of days, home on Tuesday, and in NYC on Wednesday. Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Primaries, Comedy, Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Politics Wednesday, May 07, 2008Not Sleeping in the City That Doesn't SleepObama defeated Hillary handily in NC, and still stands a chance of pulling off an upset in Indiana. If he wins that, I think she'll concede tomorrow. I want to see what happens, but I need to get up early in the morning for a meeting in Midtown. Dilemmas, dilemmas...Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Primaries, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics Wednesday, April 23, 2008Frustrated by PA9.5 points? That means nothing. Obama still has an insurmountable delegate lead, but Clinton will stay in because she's playing by her own rules.Labels: 2008 Election, 2008 Primaries, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics Monday, April 21, 2008Friday, April 11, 2008Here Comes McCain AgainVideo #2 from the McCain Girls... it's been tough to find because YouTube took it down, but I dug it up again for the time being.Are they for real? I still don't know. My guess is now probably not, but either way, they're a political phenomenon. Either they think they're doing something to help their candidate and are so unbelievably mistaken, or it's an incredible piece of subversive reverse psychology, demonstrating just how square John McCain is -- it really fits in with his geezerness. Labels: 2008 Election, Humor, John McCain, Politics, Republican Party |