OK -- the only anti-poverty solution is world-class education. Liberal rhetoric. Where are we going? Going to revitalize the community colleges? Tell us how! OK. Increased Pell Grants. That's good. Whoa! Debt forgiveness! REEEED meat.
He's talking health care. But I'm a little lost. Didn't get anything out of it.
From the Mouths of Conservatives -- Don't Feed the Humans?
Andre Bauer, Lieutenant Governor of South Carolina:
"My grandmother was not a highly educated woman, but she told me as a small child to quit feeding stray animals. You know why? Because they breed," Bauer said, according to the Greenville News. "You're facilitating the problem if you give an animal or a person ample food supply. They will reproduce, especially ones that don't think too much further than that. And so what you've got to do is you've got to curtail that type of behavior. They don't know any better."
Al Gore is God -- Or, a Jewish Take on Environmentalism
In this episode of MyJewishLearning's ongoing series, The Adventures of Todd & God, God appears before Todd in the form of former Vice President Al Gore to teach Todd the Jewish values of being environmentally conscious.
Enjoy!
(And yes, I know it's a pretty false media-driven caricature of Al, but...)
I haven't had a lot of time for blogging lately, but Richard reminded me yesterday that I really need to say something about how disappointed I am with Obama's approach to Afghanistan and Iraq. I fully agree with what Tristero says here:
If the Democratic party today doesn't have viable candidates who are prepared to oppose this crazy policy, it sure as hell will have them two elections hence. I realize that opposing the election of Democrats at a time when the opposition party has literally gone off the deep end puts this country at serious risk of another extreme rightwing takeover. But I don't think liberals have much choice but to take that risk. We are talking about potentially thousands upon thousands of human deaths for an utterly pointless war. This liberal - and I'm hardly the only one - can neither support nor excuse what is now officially the Obama/Afghan War.
Matt Yglesias, who I saw a few times at Netroots Nation, writes that high speed rail could and should be the industry that saves the American economy. At this moment, I couldn't agree more. I'm on my way back from Pittsburgh on Amtrak. I've been on the train for 9 1/2 hours (with a couple of brief pitstops). This ride should not take that long -- it's only a 6-7 hour drive. Long-distance train travel will never be in high demand when it takes longer to take the train than to drive.
Having said that, for me at least, it's been a much more pleasant experience than flying and I'm happy I took the train.
I'm sitting right now in a great panel discussion on the disaster which has the state of California hurtling towards a cliff with apparently no brakes.
I find it really rather silly that I'm starstruck by bloggers than 99.9% of the general population have never read.
I met Markos Moulitsas himself (actually a bit of a jerk, as brilliant as he is and as thankful as I am for what he's given this important movement), and have been around Matt Yglesias, Spencer Ackerman, Digby, John Amato, D-Day and lots of others. Very, very exciting.
D-Day's leading the panel; he really is my favorite blogger who posts daily (the title of my favorite blogger overall goes to the unfortunately irregular Phil Nugent), and he's one of the foremost experts in the blogosphere on California and its politics.
It's really horrifying to hear such knowledgeable people in such despair about California's situation. They've all more or less moved on from thinking that California can be saved, and onto what lessons the rest of the country can learn from Calfornia's failure. I'm no expert on the situation, but for the latest, greatest commentary on the topic, visit Calitics.
I'm at the 2009 Netroots Nation conference (formerly Yearly Kos) this weekend, a conference of (mostly) liberal bloggers and politicans. Today's the last day, and I haven't written anything yet (Blogger's been kind of bloggered), but it really is great to be at a conference where it's not considered rude to sit in a session while on a laptop.
I've seen some great things while I've been here in Pittsburgh, including Bill Clinton speaking:
I think the highlight of the convention so far for me was getting the chance to meet Don Siegelman, the former governor of Alabama who was railroaded all the way to federal prison by Karl Rove, and spent a year there. Though he's no liberal Dem, the netroots have coalesced around his cause due to the level of serious injustice involved. He's an incredibly nice guy. I spoke to him for a few minutes at last night's J Street party and also just listened to him in a panel discussion on the DOJ going awry.
I haven't taken the time yet to post anything I saw at the tea party at City Hall Park yet; heck, I haven't even looked at my photos and videos yet. The whole "protest" turned out to be so boring, uneventful, and unfocused, that I left after about half an hour. There was really nothing to see there!
Perhaps 2000 people showed up, many of whom just appeared to be curious onlookers. The loudest contingent were the "Audit the Fed" people who were handing out leaflets. I heard one talk radio host speak to the crowd in vague terms for about five minutes.
I may post a few photos later, but here's the best taste of the teabagging I've seen (h/t D-Day):
A bunch of what's left of the Republican Party is going to be gathering in places around the country to protest, well, something. I'm going to see 2012 Presidential candidate Newt Gingrich speak at City Hall Park tonight. I'll post video later. For now, the Tea Party theme song:
I rarely watch TV news in real time, but I happened to catch a bit of Obama's impromptu AIG press conference. He was doing excellently, but then when he praised Geithner, he practically compared the bankster moron to Alexander Hamilton.
Got caught in one of Florida's famous 15 minute downpours, so I headed into Andrew's, which appears to be the bar where all of the people from the state house hang out.
Neat menu:
Governor Crist's Sandwich Board
Lots going on in my mind that I want to write about, but I'm off to check out the Capitol. I'll be writing more from St. Petersburg later.
"What you're doing is buying into the notion that if we just print some more money that we don't have and send it to different states, we'll create jobs," he said. "If that's the case, why isn't Zimbabwe a rich place?"
I've been hearing conservatives compare Obama to Robert Mugabe a lot lately, despite the fact that Obama has been calling for strong action against the man. Unbelieveable.
And I hope that Sanford runs for President in 2012.
From the Mouths of Conservatives -- Paul Broun (R-Off the Deep End)
From the AP:
"It may sound a bit crazy and off base, but the thing is, he's the one who proposed this national security force," Rep. Paul Broun said of Obama in an interview Monday with The Associated Press. "I'm just trying to bring attention to the fact that we may - may not, I hope not - but we may have a problem with that type of philosophy of radical socialism or Marxism."
. . .
"That's exactly what Hitler did in Nazi Germany and it's exactly what the Soviet Union did," Broun said. "When he's proposing to have a national security force that's answering to him, that is as strong as the U.S. military, he's showing me signs of being Marxist."
Now that the election is more or less over (save for a couple of House and Senate seats), I'm going to slow down a bit on my normal online reading habits. For the next few months, I'm going to stick with the following really great blogs:
As you might imagine, I'm deliriously happy today. As I was putting my older son to sleep last night, I had just heard about Ohio. I explained to the boy that Obama was going to win the election and become the first African-American President of the United States. The boy looked up at me, eyes filled with wonder, as one's kids will on occasion, and said, "Really? The first? How can that be?" My son will grow up in a different country than I did, a country where more things seem possible, where more things are possible.
The boy woke up today, left his bed, and stepped into his world of new possibilities. He marched into my bedroom and inquired about the election. I told him that Obama had won. He then asked about Proposition 8. I told him that it passed, that a majority of Californians chose to annul the marriages of several of his cousins and the parents of two of his good friends. He didn't say, "Really? How can that be?" But he was upset - even after I explained that the arc of the moral universe is long, but that it bends toward justice.
He's off to school now, and I'm left feeling like I should have worked harder against Proposition 8, like I should have spent more time phonebanking, should have raised more money. I'm ashamed that I was so overconfident, so sure that the day of justice was finally at hand. My son takes immeasurable comfort in his parents' marriage. His little cousins, his friends from school, the people he knows who will be most directly affected by Prop 8, awoke today into a world without that comfort. The arc of the moral universe feels unbearably long right now, even as a I celebrate President-elect Obama.
I can't believe I'm talking about a next generation...
Well, I'm a little disappointed, actually. Just like me to be a downer, right?
After the election was called last night, I spent time talking to the crowd at the bar at the hotel where I'm staying in suburban Boston. About half were sorta rednecky Republicans and half were Dems. All said they supported Obama, though all of the Republicans repeatedly stated that McCain was a "true American" and a "true patriot" because he was a POW. When I asked them why they'd support Obama over McCain, the Republicans, to a man, replied, "because we need change." At the same time, they challenged me on my support for Obama and wouldn't listen to any reasoning that had anything to do with any issues. Change is all well and good, but I'd love to see some sort of acknowledgment from Obama voters, other than staunch, involved Democrats, that there's at least one not-so-abstract reason for it. Maybe I'm asking too much.
But one of the narratives I heard last night at the bar as well as in the newspapers and on the interweb today was that African-Americans "have no excuse anymore" when it comes to their success, and some have gone as far as to say that it proves that racism is dead and buried. Now, while I've been one of the first to say that racism has diminished enough that Obama's campaign could overcome it, it's far from gone.
It took an incredible, unbelievable black man running the best campaign in anyone's memory versus an underwhelming, doddering old man in the shadow of the worst President in the history of this country to put a black man in office. The Onion put it best in two headlines today:
I confess a certain impatience, on this poignant day, with all the earnest talk about how America achieved something remarkable yesterday by electing our first African-American president, as if the choice has been about race all along. I do not mean to diminish an historic first, like electing a Catholic in 1960; I, too, choked-up when John Lewis spoke. But relief today is not about Americans choosing an obviously black man over a white man, which proves we can come to terms with our past. It is about our choosing an obviously brilliant, reciprocal man over a thick, cynical one--a man who articulates a coherent vision of global commonwealth over someone advancing vague, military patriotism--which proves we can come to terms with our future.
Racism, it is true, did not confound the choice, as some predicted it would. But racism has not confounded mainstream admiration for The Cosby Show or Orprah or Tiger Woods--and hasn't for some time. Most of the 46% who voted for John McCain feel deeply anxious about a world in transition, where erudition, open-mindedness and intellectual discipline matter more and more, and their own sheer willingness to labor hard matters less and less. I bet they are more skittish about Obama's supremely elegant mind, his worldliness, than his dark skin; more drawn to the repudiation of "elitism" than to the rejection of "welfare."
So our choices are: 1. A significant portion of the country is still racist, 2. A significant portion of the country deliberately doesn't want to see an intelligent person in office, or 3. A bit of both.
Doesn't reflect terribly well, but I guess #3 isn't all that surprising to too many of us.
A nice segue from Digby into something else that doesn't reflect all that well on us, Yes on California's Proposition 8, which takes the right to marry away from gays in California:
It's terrific that we are seeing a decline in racism to the extent that we are able to elect a black president. We've come a long way and there's no taking anything away from those who waged the struggle over all these centuries. But our society is not truly changed if it's still writing discrimination into law.
It's as if we just can't be America unless we are taking active steps to marginalize somebody.
So true. We always need at least one enemy and at least like half a dozen underclasses.
We just didn't get as many House or Senate seats as I'd hoped, though 60 Senate seats is still a vague possibility.
It looks like Alaska managed to reelect a convicted felon, Senator Ted Stevens, and his supercorrupt sidekick, Don Young. I think that Stevens' conviction may have in fact helped the two of them, because Alaskan voters often see issues as the "Lower 48" against them and they may have felt that the "Washington elite," as their Governor likes to say, railroaded him.
Also, the abhorrent McCarthyite Michele Bachmann was reelected to her seat in Minnesota. What are they thinking in that state, particularly if Coleman pulls out reelection in his still-undecided Senate race.
I am happy, however, that Sasha and Malia Obama are getting a puppy!
Also, the elections of Walt Minnick in Idaho, Alan Grayson in Florida, Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Dan Maffei in New York, and Larry Kissell in North Carolina, among others, are welcome news.
And of course, YES WE DID! YES WE DID!
And make sure you catch the replay of tonight's South Park, which apparently was partially recorded after the election last night. Those guys are still in form after 12 years on the air.
So, it's over and Barack Obama is President-Elect.
Well, it's not quite over. Still some important Senate and House seats left, like in Minnesota and Alaska.
So how did I do? Not that well. I predicted Obama would get 330 electoral votes, that the Dems would get 8 net seats in Senate, and 39 net in the House. Looks like 370, 6, and 20ish.
But, a good night overall and we should enjoy this for a few days.
In CNN's world, it's not. John King insists that there's still room for McCain to come back from his 13 point deficit. We'll see.
UPDATE: MSNBC, Fox, and CNN call it too. That's it. It's over. They call New Mexico too, so assuming California goes Obama, he needs to win about two more states.
Unfortunate, as that leaves us with a cap of about 59 seats in the Senate, unless Ronnie Musgrove somehow wins in Mississippi, which I just don't see happening.
Virginia has closed to a 5% McCain lead as the results come in...
Unfortunately, looks like Judy Feder's going to lose to Frank Wolf in VA-10. That's a major disappointment after his staffers assaulted a couple of bloggers a few days ago.
There's no way it's going to hold up, but sex scandal ridden Democrat Tim Mahoney is holding his own in FL-16 with about 8% of precincts in in his district...
IN-04 and IN-06, the two longshot races I've been following, have been called for Mike Pence and Steve Buyer, the Republicans. Mark Souder (R) is up 12 with about 10% of the results in in IN-03. My fingers are crossed for Mike Montagano there, but it doesn't look good right now.
But, Obama is down 1 there. That's a really, really good sign.
Obama nabs 330 electoral votes, the Dems take 8 seats in the Senate (for a total of 59) and they net 39 seats in the House, giving them a total of 275.
Should be enjoyable to watch. I plan to liveblog as much as I can this evening, starting around 6.
From the Mouths of Conservatives: Equality is Not An American Value
Equality, which is the primary value of the left, is a European value, not an American value. Let me tell you that right now. I know this sounds offensive to half of my fellow Americans, because they have been Europeanized in their values. The French Revolution is not the American Revolution. The French Revolution said Liberty, Fraternity, Equality. The American Revolution said Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. We have lost touch with what our distinctive American values are. We have distinctive American values. … We have a better value system, and this is being protected by one of the two parties: the Republican party.
This Obama ad has been floating on the web for a few days now, but I've been avoiding it because it sounded stupid to me. I finally watching it, and it's not. It might be the best ad anyone's done all year. Fantastic. Watch:
Sarah Palin, who throws around the word a lot, doesn't seem to know... or at least she can't say that abortion clinic bombers are terrorists because she'll lose the only people who actually like her these days:
No candidate this far back two weeks out has ever won.
Early voting is going strong and even if something big happens, those votes are already cast.
The Democrats have a 10% advantage in party registration; in 2004 it was even.
Obama is outspending McCain 4 to 1 in many states.
There is no evidence for the so-called Bradley effect in the past 15 years.
Obama is safe in all the Kerry states and ahead in half a dozen states Bush won.
If McCain were to win at this point, it would be the comeback to end all political comebacks. It just isn't going to happen. I'm going to put a wager on it -- if McCain does win, the background image on my blog for the next year will be me wearing a McCain-Palin T-shirt. Nah guh happen.
To put [undecideds] in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. "Can I interest you in the chicken?" she asks. "Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?"
To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.
Jon Stewart explained it to us last night... I really understood it when he laid it all out in an equation ("divided by the number of pieces of identification you need to buy a Sudafed"):
UPDATE: For those of you who aren't real Americans, Jason Jones shows us a few:
Currently, there are 86 Republican seats in play. If you have any others, please let me know in the comments (with links showing fundraising and/or polling numbers).
In the 110th Congress (2007-2008), the Dems hold 236 seats and the Republicans 199. The Dems are the majority in 27 of the states' delegations, the Reps 21, and 2 delegations are tied. In our best case scenario, the Democrats would have the majority in 40 states, the Republicans 7, with three ties (Idaho, Kansas, and Kentucky).
Here are the seats that at least one of those sites (or another source specified) rated as Dem pickup possibilities (New additions are signified with an asterisk):
Alabama: 7 districts, 5 Republican, 2 in play Best Case Scenario: 4 Dems, 3 Reps, Dem Majority
I've been working a bit today on tomorrow's update of the my list of Congressional races in play. One of the blogs I've been consulting a bit is Down With Tyranny!.
I can't recommend it more. If you're feeling politically wonky and a bit bored, you can get lost in it. Good stuff.
From the Mouths of Conservatives -- THIS WOMAN IS A UNITED STATES CONGRESSWOMAN????
Uh...
"What I would say is that the news media should do a penetrating expose and take a look. I wish they would. I wish the American media would take a great look at the views of the people in Congress and find out, are they pro-America or Anti-America? I think the American people would love to see an expose like that."
UPDATE: A word from the resident expert on the topic (and energy and foreign policy), Ms. Sarah Palin:
We believe that the best of America is not all in Washington, D.C. We believe" -- here the audience interrupted Palin with applause and cheers -- "We believe that the best of America is in these small towns that we get to visit, and in these wonderful little pockets of what I call the real America, being here with all of you hard working very patriotic, um, very, um, pro-America areas of this great nation. This is where we find the kindness and the goodness and the courage of everyday Americans. Those who are running our factories and teaching our kids and growing our food and are fighting our wars for us. Those who are protecting us in uniform. Those who are protecting the virtues of freedom.
I'm about as anti-American as they get, living in NYC these days...
I'm planning on updating my list of Congressional seats that the Dems could possibly get their hands on in November on Sunday. There's going to be a lot to add, looking at the Cook Report's latest update. 25 updated races, all in favor of the Dems (though I'm sure Tim Mahoney's race in Florida will be updated the other way fairly soon).
In the meantime, for the real nerds, here's Swing State Project's latest update on the state of the state legislature races around the country.
Barack Obama as a murderous Communist dictator is a common theme among wingnut Republicans, and the drumbeat keeps getting stronger. Here's a quote from a rightie on Silicon Investor (yes, I spend too much time there):
Eventually [Obama] or his successor will make laws [business leaders] cannot avoid breaking, put them in jail, kill them, and take over the companies. Obama's people, ACORN and Democrats will then be the super rich.
For the politically uninitiated, the Bradley Effect is named for Tom Bradley, the former mayor of Los Angeles who ran for governor of California in 1982 and lost even though he was winning significantly a few days before the election. Since then political conventional wisdom would have it that going into an election, a black candidate needs to have a fairly large lead in the polls to compensate for the number of people who tell pollsters they will vote for the black candidate to avoid admitting that they will not vote for a black candidate.
Politico has some numbers and data that show that the "Bradley Effect" may have been simple polling error, and that Bradley's opponent actually did close the gap in the days before the election.
Jeff, a business associate of mine in my Albany office, floated an interesting idea yesterday. I'm not sure that I agree with it, but the essence of it is that there might be a "Reverse Bradley Effect," where people don't want to admit they MIGHT vote for a black candidate but vote for Obama because they feel like it's in their economic self-interest. Some interesting evidence from Ben Smith at Politico, about a focus group's reaction to a McCain ad:
Reagan Dems and Independents. Call them blue-collar plus. Slightly more Target than Walmart.
Yes, the spot worked. Yes, they believed the charges against Obama. Yes, they actually think he's too liberal, consorts with bad people and WON'T BE A GOOD PRESIDENT...but they STILL don't give a f***. They said right out, "He won't do anything better than McCain" but they're STILL voting for Obama.
The two most unreal moments of my professional life of watching focus groups:
54 year-old white male, voted Kerry '04, Bush '00, Dole '96, hunter, NASCAR fan...hard for Obama said: "I'm gonna hate him the minute I vote for him. He's gonna be a bad president. But I won't ever vote for another god-damn Republican. I want the government to take over all of Wall Street and bankers and the car companies and Wal-Mart run this county like we used to when Reagan was President."
The next was a woman, late 50s, Democrat but strongly pro-life. Loved B. and H. Clinton, loved Bush in 2000. "Well, I don't know much about this terrorist group Barack used to be in with that Weather guy but I'm sick of paying for health insurance at work and that's why I'm supporting Barack.">
He voted against the first Gulf War. He voted against it and, obviously, we had to take Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait or it would've threatened the Middle Eastern world [oil] supply.
1. He was asked about if Obama's $250,000 tax bracket would affect him, and he said, something to the effect of, "No, but it's a slippery slope -- if he decides now that $250,000 is rich, next he'll decide that $100,000 is rich, and then who knows?" No mention of employees or an actual business.
LATER UPDATE: He actually is registered to vote, and a Republican. Not only that, but he's a staunch right-winger who is against Social Security... and aside from that, he's a relative of Charles Keating! And a schmuck.
But he's Neil Cavuto's "kinda plumber...":
EVEN LATER UPDATE: It's been pointed out that there's no solid evidence on the Keating relation yet... at least for sure that Joe and Robert Wurzelbacher are related (Robert Wurzelbacher is, for sure, Keating's son-in-law). But I'll keep you posted.
These things are always a crisis of confidence. No matter what the industry, the guy who swims without trunks is going to have advantages. The whole point of laws and regulations is so that there are some minimal decency standards in case everyone has to come out of the water.
However, starting in the 1980s and 1990s, one by one they started to quietly slip out of their trunks. That was ok, as long as it was only a few, it wasn't really gay. When the enforcement was relaxed after 2000 and the growth of the unregulated parts after 1999, going commando became irresistible.
Suddenly, everyone pauses and is paddling in place, and it is dawning on them that the guys next to them are probably going commando also. Simultaneously, the thought crosses all of their minds "this is soooo gay"....
(This is truly the wonkiest thing I've ever posted to this site)
Markos mentioned today that we are working toward a 100 seat Democratic majority in the House.
This morning, I was talking to a friend, and wondered aloud if we could reach a 2/3 majority, which would be 290 seats (to 145 Republican seats). We'd need to gain 54 to do that.
Trying to gauge the possibilities, I spent a good portion of the day looking over the ratings on Cook, Real Clear Politics, and Electoral-Vote.com, to get a baseline of the Republican seats that are in play.
Being that I'm looking at only the most optimistic scenario, I ignored all seats that are currently Dem and included as "in play" any Republican seats that are rated anything less than "Safe/Solid Republican."
It was a good feeling to see Microsoft Excel auto-fill "Solid Democratic" much more often than "Solid Republican."
Anyway, here are the seats that at least one of those sites rated as Dem pickup possibilities:
Virginia VA-02 (Cook) VA-05 (Cook) VA-11 (Cook, EV, RCP)
Washington WA-08 (Cook, EV, RCP)
Wyoming WY-AL (Cook)
Of note, aside from the last Republican seat in New England (CT-04) being in serious jeopardy, every Republican seat in Minnesota and Nevada are possible, and we can also grab four of the six seats that the Republicans still hold in New York. Real opportunities to step on their necks.
All in all, 58 states in play, just according to those sites. I know that there are others that aren't being picked up -- for instance, CA-03 and possibly MD-06. I'll include those in a future edition, with links to polls and such.
So, if everything moves in our favor, we can get that 2/3rds. But how many more? What's the BEST we can do? That's where I need your help. Between now and the next edition, if you have other races that should be included in this list, please post them in the comments along with links to relevant polls or fundraising numbers showing that the race really is in play.
I for one, won't be happy until we have every last Republican seat in the House and Senate. What can I say -- I'm a dreamer!
I don't have a lot to say about the debate tonight, other than I think Obama won by a bit (the poll or two I've seen seem to indicate he won by a lot more). McCain's last chance to make this a contest is at next week's debate, but I think this one's over. More tomorrow.
I think I'm going to start doing a little new feature, because there are just too many of these not to post. Given, there's an entire blog for these, Sadly, No!, but what the heck? Actually written by a conservative on a discussion board I frequent:
"The Weather Channel is probably more evil than the Weathermen."
